AVIS BUDGET (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 28.95
| CUCA Stock | EUR 98.38 3.32 3.26% |
AVIS |
AVIS BUDGET Target Price Odds to finish below 28.95
The tendency of AVIS Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 28.95 or more in 90 days |
| 98.38 | 90 days | 28.95 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of AVIS BUDGET to drop to € 28.95 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This AVIS BUDGET GROUP probability density function shows the probability of AVIS Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of AVIS BUDGET GROUP price to stay between € 28.95 and its current price of €98.38 at the end of the 90-day period is about 17.42 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon AVIS BUDGET GROUP has a beta of -0.82 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding AVIS BUDGET are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, AVIS BUDGET GROUP is likely to outperform the market. Additionally AVIS BUDGET GROUP has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. AVIS BUDGET Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for AVIS BUDGET
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AVIS BUDGET GROUP. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AVIS BUDGET's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
AVIS BUDGET Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. AVIS BUDGET is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the AVIS BUDGET's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AVIS BUDGET GROUP, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of AVIS BUDGET within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.49 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.82 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 23.32 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.15 |
AVIS BUDGET Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of AVIS BUDGET for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for AVIS BUDGET GROUP can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| AVIS BUDGET GROUP generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| AVIS BUDGET GROUP has high historical volatility and very poor performance |
AVIS BUDGET Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of AVIS Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential AVIS BUDGET's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AVIS BUDGET's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 39 M | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 27 M |
AVIS BUDGET Technical Analysis
AVIS BUDGET's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. AVIS Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AVIS BUDGET GROUP. In general, you should focus on analyzing AVIS Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
AVIS BUDGET Predictive Forecast Models
AVIS BUDGET's time-series forecasting models is one of many AVIS BUDGET's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary AVIS BUDGET's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about AVIS BUDGET GROUP
Checking the ongoing alerts about AVIS BUDGET for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for AVIS BUDGET GROUP help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| AVIS BUDGET GROUP generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| AVIS BUDGET GROUP has high historical volatility and very poor performance |
Check out AVIS BUDGET Backtesting, AVIS BUDGET Valuation, AVIS BUDGET Correlation, AVIS BUDGET Hype Analysis, AVIS BUDGET Volatility, AVIS BUDGET History as well as AVIS BUDGET Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Analyzer module to portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine.
Complementary Tools for AVIS Stock analysis
When running AVIS BUDGET's price analysis, check to measure AVIS BUDGET's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AVIS BUDGET is operating at the current time. Most of AVIS BUDGET's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AVIS BUDGET's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AVIS BUDGET's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AVIS BUDGET to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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