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Babcock Wilcox Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 4.51

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BW -- USA Stock  

USD 4.69  0.04  0.86%

Babcock Wilcox probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Babcock Wilcox Enterprises I performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Babcock Wilcox time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Babcock Wilcox odds to be computed. Continue to Babcock Wilcox Backtesting, Babcock Wilcox Valuation, Babcock Wilcox Correlation, Babcock Wilcox Hype Analysis, Babcock Wilcox Volatility, Babcock Wilcox History as well as Babcock Wilcox Performance.
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Babcock Wilcox Target Price Odds to finish below 4.51

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 4.51  or more in 30 days
 4.69 30 days 4.51 
about 77.1
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Babcock Wilcox to drop to $ 4.51  or more in 30 days from now is about 77.1 (This Babcock Wilcox Enterprises I probability density function shows the probability of Babcock Wilcox Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Babcock Wilcox Enter price to stay between $ 4.51  and its current price of $4.69 at the end of the 30-day period is about 7.14 .
Allowing for the 30-days total investment horizon, Babcock Wilcox Enterprises I has beta of -0.2231 . This suggests as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Babcock Wilcox are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, Babcock Wilcox Enterprises I is likely to outperform the market. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.3067 implying that it can potentially generate 0.3067% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Babcock Wilcox Price Density 
    
  Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.31
β
Beta against DOW=0.22
σ
Overall volatility
=0.68
Ir
Information ratio =0.07

Babcock Wilcox Alerts and Suggestions

Babcock Wilcox Enter appears to be very risky and stock price may revert if volatility continues
Babcock Wilcox Enter has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its debt commitments
The company reports 380.5 M of total liabilities with total debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 360.7 which implies that the company may not be able to produce enough cash to satisfy its debt commitments. Babcock Wilcox Enter has Current Ratio of 0.72 implying that it has not enough working capital to pay out debt commitments in time.
The entity generated yearly revenue of 997.93 M. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (409.79 M) with gross Loss of (129.64 M).
BRUSH ENGINEERED reports about 35.19 M in cash with (313.82 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.76.
Over 75.0% of Babcock Wilcox shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Dziewisz John J of 40000 shares of Babcock Wilcox subject to Rule 16b-3

Babcock WilcoxPrice Density Drivers

Shares Percent Shares Out2.11%
Short Percent Of Float9.63%
Float Shares44.29M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day78.7k
Shares Short Prior Month809.43k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month134.14k
Date Short InterestJanuary 31, 2020