Babcock Wilcox Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 3.05

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BW -- USA Stock  

USD 4.51  0.01  0.22%

Babcock Wilcox probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Babcock Wilcox Enterprises I performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Babcock Wilcox time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Babcock Wilcox odds to be computed. Continue to Babcock Wilcox Backtesting, Babcock Wilcox Valuation, Babcock Wilcox Correlation, Babcock Wilcox Hype Analysis, Babcock Wilcox Volatility, Babcock Wilcox History as well as Babcock Wilcox Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Babcock Wilcox Target Price Odds to finish below 3.05

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 3.05  or more in 30 days
 4.51 30 days 3.05 
about 8.25
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Babcock Wilcox to drop to $ 3.05  or more in 30 days from now is about 8.25 (This Babcock Wilcox Enterprises I probability density function shows the probability of Babcock Wilcox Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Babcock Wilcox Enter price to stay between $ 3.05  and its current price of $4.51 at the end of the 30-day period is about 70.23 .
Allowing for the 30-days total investment horizon, the stock has beta coefficient of 1.2 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average . However, if the benchmark returns are expected to be negative, Babcock Wilcox will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. Babcock Wilcox Enter is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Babcock Wilcox Price Density 
    
  Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.07
β
Beta against DOW=1.20
σ
Overall volatility
=0.67
Ir
Information ratio =0.01

Babcock Wilcox Alerts and Suggestions

Babcock Wilcox Enter has very high historical volatility over the last 30 days
Babcock Wilcox Enter has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its debt commitments
The company reports 380.5 M of total liabilities with total debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 360.7 which implies that the company may not be able to produce enough cash to satisfy its debt commitments. Babcock Wilcox Enter has Current Ratio of 0.72 implying that it has not enough working capital to pay out debt commitments in time.
The entity generated yearly revenue of 997.93 M. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (409.79 M) with gross Loss of (129.64 M).
BRUSH ENGINEERED reports about 35.19 M in cash with (313.82 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.76.
Over 76.0% of Babcock Wilcox shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from www.streetinsider.com: BW Continues To Work Toward Debt Refinancing - StreetInsider.com

Babcock WilcoxPrice Density Drivers

Shares Percent Shares Out1.75%
Short Percent Of Float7.96%
Float Shares43.46M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day138.82k
Shares Short Prior Month893.27k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month135.64k
Date Short InterestDecember 31, 2019