American Express Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 106.78

AXP Stock  USD 227.75  3.29  1.47%   
American Express' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on American Express. Implied volatility approximates the future value of American Express based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in American Express over a specific time period. For example, 2024-03-28 CALL at $227.5 is a CALL option contract on American Express' common stock with a strick price of 227.5 expiring on 2024-03-28. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 15:55:02 for $1.12 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.05, and an ask price of $1.17. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 20.68. View All American options

Closest to current price American long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

American Express' future price is the expected price of American Express instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of American Express performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out American Express Backtesting, American Express Valuation, American Express Correlation, American Express Hype Analysis, American Express Volatility, American Express History as well as American Express Performance.
To learn how to invest in American Stock, please use our How to Invest in American Express guide.
  
As of 03/28/2024, Price To Free Cash Flows Ratio is likely to grow to 11.84, while Price Earnings Ratio is likely to drop 13.38. Please specify American Express' target price for which you would like American Express odds to be computed.

American Express Target Price Odds to finish below 106.78

The tendency of American Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 106.78  or more in 90 days
 227.75 90 days 106.78 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of American Express to drop to $ 106.78  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This American Express probability density function shows the probability of American Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of American Express price to stay between $ 106.78  and its current price of $227.75 at the end of the 90-day period is about 92.25 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.15 . This suggests American Express market returns are sensible to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, American Express is expected to follow. Additionally American Express has an alpha of 0.1776, implying that it can generate a 0.18 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   American Express Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for American Express

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Express. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Express' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
226.43227.75229.07
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
217.40218.72250.53
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
227.64228.97230.29
Details
30 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
166.02182.44202.51
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as American Express. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against American Express' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, American Express' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in American Express.

American Express Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. American Express is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the American Express' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold American Express, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of American Express within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.18
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.15
σ
Overall volatility
15.94
Ir
Information ratio 0.15

American Express Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of American Express for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for American Express can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 65.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 9th of February 2024 American Express paid $ 0.6 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from oregonlive.com: Feds seek assets allegedly derived in colossal heist targeting wealthy Oregon publisher

American Express Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of American Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential American Express' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Express' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding736 M
Cash And Short Term Investments86.1 B

American Express Technical Analysis

American Express' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. American Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of American Express. In general, you should focus on analyzing American Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

American Express Predictive Forecast Models

American Express' time-series forecasting models is one of many American Express' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary American Express' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about American Express

Checking the ongoing alerts about American Express for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for American Express help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 65.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 9th of February 2024 American Express paid $ 0.6 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from oregonlive.com: Feds seek assets allegedly derived in colossal heist targeting wealthy Oregon publisher
When determining whether American Express is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if American Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about American Express Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about American Express Stock:

Complementary Tools for American Stock analysis

When running American Express' price analysis, check to measure American Express' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Express is operating at the current time. Most of American Express' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Express' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Express' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Express to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is American Express' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Express. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Express listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.263
Dividend Share
2.4
Earnings Share
11.2
Revenue Per Share
75.635
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.092
The market value of American Express is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Express' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Express' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Express' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Express' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Express' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American Express is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Express' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.