Axos Financial Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 29.15

AX Stock  USD 53.37  1.37  2.63%   
Axos Financial's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Axos Financial. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Axos Financial based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Axos Financial over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $52.5 is a CALL option contract on Axos Financial's common stock with a strick price of 52.5 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-25 at 14:27:03 for $2.15 and, as of today, has 22 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $2.35, and an ask price of $2.6. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 36.93. View All Axos options

Closest to current price Axos long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Axos Financial's future price is the expected price of Axos Financial instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Axos Financial performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Axos Financial Backtesting, Axos Financial Valuation, Axos Financial Correlation, Axos Financial Hype Analysis, Axos Financial Volatility, Axos Financial History as well as Axos Financial Performance.
For more information on how to buy Axos Stock please use our How to Invest in Axos Financial guide.
  
At this time, Axos Financial's Price Book Value Ratio is fairly stable compared to the past year. Price To Free Cash Flows Ratio is likely to rise to 14.84 in 2024, whereas Price Earnings Ratio is likely to drop 8.37 in 2024. Please specify Axos Financial's target price for which you would like Axos Financial odds to be computed.

Axos Financial Target Price Odds to finish over 29.15

The tendency of Axos Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 29.15  in 90 days
 53.37 90 days 29.15 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Axos Financial to stay above $ 29.15  in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Axos Financial probability density function shows the probability of Axos Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Axos Financial price to stay between $ 29.15  and its current price of $53.37 at the end of the 90-day period is about 60.21 .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.7 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Axos Financial will likely underperform. Additionally Axos Financial has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Axos Financial Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Axos Financial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Axos Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Axos Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
51.3253.3355.34
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
51.3453.3555.36
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
51.5953.6055.61
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
48.6953.5059.39
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Axos Financial. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Axos Financial's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Axos Financial's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Axos Financial.

Axos Financial Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Axos Financial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Axos Financial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Axos Financial, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Axos Financial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.23
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.70
σ
Overall volatility
1.96
Ir
Information ratio -0.07

Axos Financial Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Axos Financial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Axos Financial can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Axos Financial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Axos Financial has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 88.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from businesswire.com: Axos Financial, Inc. to Announce Third Quarter Fiscal 2024 Results on April 30, 2024

Axos Financial Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Axos Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Axos Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Axos Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding60.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments2.5 B

Axos Financial Technical Analysis

Axos Financial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Axos Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Axos Financial. In general, you should focus on analyzing Axos Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Axos Financial Predictive Forecast Models

Axos Financial's time-series forecasting models is one of many Axos Financial's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Axos Financial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Axos Financial

Checking the ongoing alerts about Axos Financial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Axos Financial help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Axos Financial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Axos Financial has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 88.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from businesswire.com: Axos Financial, Inc. to Announce Third Quarter Fiscal 2024 Results on April 30, 2024
When determining whether Axos Financial offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Axos Financial's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Axos Financial Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Axos Financial Stock:
Check out Axos Financial Backtesting, Axos Financial Valuation, Axos Financial Correlation, Axos Financial Hype Analysis, Axos Financial Volatility, Axos Financial History as well as Axos Financial Performance.
For more information on how to buy Axos Stock please use our How to Invest in Axos Financial guide.
You can also try the Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.

Complementary Tools for Axos Stock analysis

When running Axos Financial's price analysis, check to measure Axos Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Axos Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Axos Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Axos Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Axos Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Axos Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Axos Financial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Axos Financial. If investors know Axos will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Axos Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.941
Earnings Share
6.74
Revenue Per Share
15.998
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.096
Return On Assets
0.0199
The market value of Axos Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Axos that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Axos Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Axos Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Axos Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Axos Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Axos Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Axos Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Axos Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.