Associated British Foods Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Under 34.68

ASBFY Stock  USD 31.75  0.61  1.96%   
Associated British's future price is the expected price of Associated British instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Associated British Foods performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Associated British Backtesting, Associated British Valuation, Associated British Correlation, Associated British Hype Analysis, Associated British Volatility, Associated British History as well as Associated British Performance.
  
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Associated British Target Price Odds to finish below 34.68

The tendency of Associated Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 34.68  after 90 days
 31.75 90 days 34.68 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Associated British to stay under $ 34.68  after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Associated British Foods probability density function shows the probability of Associated Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Associated British Foods price to stay between its current price of $ 31.75  and $ 34.68  at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Associated British has a beta of 0.69. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Associated British average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Associated British Foods will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Associated British Foods has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Associated British Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Associated British

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Associated British Foods. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Associated British's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
30.2131.7533.29
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
29.2830.8232.36
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
30.5932.1233.66
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
30.9731.5532.12
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Associated British. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Associated British's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Associated British's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Associated British Foods.

Associated British Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Associated British is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Associated British's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Associated British Foods, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Associated British within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.0021
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.69
σ
Overall volatility
0.84
Ir
Information ratio -0.03

Associated British Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Associated Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Associated British's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Associated British's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding790 M
Cash And Short Term Investments2.1 B

Associated British Technical Analysis

Associated British's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Associated Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Associated British Foods. In general, you should focus on analyzing Associated Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Associated British Predictive Forecast Models

Associated British's time-series forecasting models is one of many Associated British's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Associated British's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Associated British in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Associated British's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Associated British options trading.
Check out Associated British Backtesting, Associated British Valuation, Associated British Correlation, Associated British Hype Analysis, Associated British Volatility, Associated British History as well as Associated British Performance.
Note that the Associated British Foods information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Associated British's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.

Complementary Tools for Associated Pink Sheet analysis

When running Associated British's price analysis, check to measure Associated British's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Associated British is operating at the current time. Most of Associated British's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Associated British's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Associated British's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Associated British to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Associated British's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Associated British is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Associated British's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.