Align Technology Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 280.7

ALGN Stock  USD 327.92  0.02  0.01%   
Align Technology's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Align Technology. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Align Technology based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Align Technology over a specific time period. For example, 2024-03-28 CALL at $330.0 is a CALL option contract on Align Technology's common stock with a strick price of 330.0 expiring on 2024-03-28. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 15:56:45 for $1.26 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.2, and an ask price of $1.6. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 31.25. View All Align options

Closest to current price Align long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Align Technology's future price is the expected price of Align Technology instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Align Technology performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Align Technology Backtesting, Align Technology Valuation, Align Technology Correlation, Align Technology Hype Analysis, Align Technology Volatility, Align Technology History as well as Align Technology Performance.
To learn how to invest in Align Stock, please use our How to Invest in Align Technology guide.
  
As of the 28th of March 2024, Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is likely to grow to 1.90, while Price Earnings Ratio is likely to drop 28.50. Please specify Align Technology's target price for which you would like Align Technology odds to be computed.

Align Technology Target Price Odds to finish over 280.7

The tendency of Align Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 280.70  in 90 days
 327.92 90 days 280.70 
about 68.31
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Align Technology to stay above $ 280.70  in 90 days from now is about 68.31 (This Align Technology probability density function shows the probability of Align Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Align Technology price to stay between $ 280.70  and its current price of $327.92 at the end of the 90-day period is about 63.65 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.22 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Align Technology will likely underperform. Additionally Align Technology has an alpha of 0.0065, implying that it can generate a 0.006533 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Align Technology Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Align Technology

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Align Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Align Technology's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
326.10328.24330.38
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
288.24290.38360.69
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
338.43340.57342.71
Details
17 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
246.05270.38300.12
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Align Technology. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Align Technology's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Align Technology's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Align Technology.

Align Technology Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Align Technology is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Align Technology's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Align Technology, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Align Technology within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.01
β
Beta against NYSE Composite2.22
σ
Overall volatility
21.90
Ir
Information ratio 0.08

Align Technology Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Align Technology for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Align Technology can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Align Technology has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 88.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Heres Why You Should Buy Align Technology Stock Now

Align Technology Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Align Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Align Technology's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Align Technology's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding76.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments972.7 M

Align Technology Technical Analysis

Align Technology's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Align Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Align Technology. In general, you should focus on analyzing Align Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Align Technology Predictive Forecast Models

Align Technology's time-series forecasting models is one of many Align Technology's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Align Technology's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Align Technology

Checking the ongoing alerts about Align Technology for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Align Technology help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Align Technology has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 88.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Heres Why You Should Buy Align Technology Stock Now
When determining whether Align Technology offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Align Technology's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Align Technology Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Align Technology Stock:
Check out Align Technology Backtesting, Align Technology Valuation, Align Technology Correlation, Align Technology Hype Analysis, Align Technology Volatility, Align Technology History as well as Align Technology Performance.
To learn how to invest in Align Stock, please use our How to Invest in Align Technology guide.
Note that the Align Technology information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Align Technology's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..

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When running Align Technology's price analysis, check to measure Align Technology's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Align Technology is operating at the current time. Most of Align Technology's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Align Technology's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Align Technology's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Align Technology to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Align Technology's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Align Technology. If investors know Align will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Align Technology listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
2.06
Earnings Share
5.82
Revenue Per Share
50.536
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.061
Return On Assets
0.0682
The market value of Align Technology is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Align that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Align Technology's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Align Technology's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Align Technology's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Align Technology's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Align Technology's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Align Technology is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Align Technology's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.