Arthur J Gallagher Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 93.75
| AJG Stock | USD 232.09 2.49 1.06% |
Closest to current price Arthur long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Arthur |
Arthur J Target Price Odds to finish below 93.75
The tendency of Arthur Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 93.75 or more in 90 days |
| 232.09 | 90 days | 93.75 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Arthur J to drop to $ 93.75 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Arthur J Gallagher probability density function shows the probability of Arthur Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Arthur J Gallagher price to stay between $ 93.75 and its current price of $232.09 at the end of the 90-day period is about 9.04 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Arthur J has a beta of 0.3. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Arthur J average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Arthur J Gallagher will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Arthur J Gallagher has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Arthur J Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Arthur J
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arthur J Gallagher. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Arthur J's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Arthur J Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Arthur J is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Arthur J's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Arthur J Gallagher, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Arthur J within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.02 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.30 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 7.32 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Arthur J Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Arthur J for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Arthur J Gallagher can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Arthur J Gallagher generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 87.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 15th of March 2024 Arthur J paid $ 0.6 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Arthur J. Gallagher Co. stock underperforms Monday when compared to competitors - MarketWatch |
Arthur J Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Arthur Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Arthur J's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Arthur J's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 219.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 971.5 M |
Arthur J Technical Analysis
Arthur J's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Arthur Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Arthur J Gallagher. In general, you should focus on analyzing Arthur Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Arthur J Predictive Forecast Models
Arthur J's time-series forecasting models is one of many Arthur J's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Arthur J's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Arthur J Gallagher
Checking the ongoing alerts about Arthur J for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Arthur J Gallagher help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Arthur J Gallagher generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 87.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 15th of March 2024 Arthur J paid $ 0.6 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Arthur J. Gallagher Co. stock underperforms Monday when compared to competitors - MarketWatch |
Check out Arthur J Backtesting, Arthur J Valuation, Arthur J Correlation, Arthur J Hype Analysis, Arthur J Volatility, Arthur J History as well as Arthur J Performance. You can also try the Cryptocurrency Center module to build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency.
Complementary Tools for Arthur Stock analysis
When running Arthur J's price analysis, check to measure Arthur J's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Arthur J is operating at the current time. Most of Arthur J's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Arthur J's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Arthur J's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Arthur J to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Arthur J's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Arthur J. If investors know Arthur will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Arthur J listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.076 | Dividend Share 2.2 | Earnings Share 4.41 | Revenue Per Share 44.482 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.18 |
The market value of Arthur J Gallagher is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Arthur that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Arthur J's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Arthur J's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Arthur J's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Arthur J's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Arthur J's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Arthur J is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Arthur J's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.