Apple Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 163.98

<div class='circular--portrait' style='background:#000000;color: white;font-size:3em;padding-top: 35px;;'>AAP</div>
AAPL -- USA Stock  

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Apple probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Apple performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Apple time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Apple odds to be computed. Please continue to Apple Backtesting, Apple Valuation, Apple Correlation, Apple Hype Analysis, Apple Volatility, Apple History as well as Apple Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Apple Target Price Odds to finish below 163.98

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 163.98  or more in 30 days
 319.23 30 days 163.98 
near 1
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Apple to drop to $ 163.98  or more in 30 days from now is near 1 (This Apple probability density function shows the probability of Apple Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Apple price to stay between $ 163.98  and its current price of $319.23 at the end of the 30-day period is roughly 97.0 .
Given the investment horizon of 30 days, Apple has beta of 0.9638 . This suggests Apple market returns are highly reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Apple is expected to follow. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.3155 implying that it can potentially generate 0.3155% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Apple Price Density 
    
  Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.32
β
Beta against DOW=0.96
σ
Overall volatility
=22.83
Ir
Information ratio =0.29

Apple Alerts and Suggestions

Apple has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations
About 62.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Exercise or conversion by Philip Schiller of 1100 shares of Apple subject to Rule 16b-3

ApplePrice Density Drivers

Shares Percent Shares Out1.02%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate3.00
Short Percent Of Float0.96%
Float Shares4.19B
Shares Short Prior Month63.49M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day32.98M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month26.92M
Date Short InterestDecember 31, 2019
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield0.95%