Advance Auto Parts Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 137.16

AAP Stock  USD 85.32  1.07  1.27%   
Advance Auto's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Advance Auto Parts. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Advance Auto based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Advance Auto Parts over a specific time period. For example, 2024-03-28 CALL at $85.0 is a CALL option contract on Advance Auto's common stock with a strick price of 85.0 expiring on 2024-03-28. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 15:16:10 for $0.79 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.87, and an ask price of $0.93. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 40.98. View All Advance options

Closest to current price Advance long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Advance Auto's future price is the expected price of Advance Auto instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Advance Auto Parts performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Advance Auto Backtesting, Advance Auto Valuation, Advance Auto Correlation, Advance Auto Hype Analysis, Advance Auto Volatility, Advance Auto History as well as Advance Auto Performance.
  
At this time, Advance Auto's Price Book Value Ratio is relatively stable compared to the past year. As of 03/28/2024, Price To Book Ratio is likely to grow to 4.85, though Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is likely to grow to (1.21). Please specify Advance Auto's target price for which you would like Advance Auto odds to be computed.

Advance Auto Target Price Odds to finish below 137.16

The tendency of Advance Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 137.16  after 90 days
 85.32 90 days 137.16 
about 69.83
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Advance Auto to stay under $ 137.16  after 90 days from now is about 69.83 (This Advance Auto Parts probability density function shows the probability of Advance Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Advance Auto Parts price to stay between its current price of $ 85.32  and $ 137.16  at the end of the 90-day period is about 41.24 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.18 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Advance Auto will likely underperform. Additionally Advance Auto Parts has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Advance Auto Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Advance Auto

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Advance Auto Parts. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Advance Auto's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
83.0085.1287.24
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
78.9681.0893.85
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
78.7180.8382.95
Details
30 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
62.4468.6176.16
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Advance Auto. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Advance Auto's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Advance Auto's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Advance Auto Parts.

Advance Auto Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Advance Auto is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Advance Auto's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Advance Auto Parts, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Advance Auto within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.16
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.18
σ
Overall volatility
47.78
Ir
Information ratio -0.05

Advance Auto Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Advance Auto for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Advance Auto Parts can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Advance Auto Parts generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Over 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from livemint.com: Dal-rice, jail mattress BRS K Kavitha shares cell with two female inmates on Day-1 in Tihar

Advance Auto Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Advance Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Advance Auto's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Advance Auto's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding59.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments503.5 M

Advance Auto Technical Analysis

Advance Auto's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Advance Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Advance Auto Parts. In general, you should focus on analyzing Advance Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Advance Auto Predictive Forecast Models

Advance Auto's time-series forecasting models is one of many Advance Auto's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Advance Auto's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Advance Auto Parts

Checking the ongoing alerts about Advance Auto for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Advance Auto Parts help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Advance Auto Parts generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Over 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from livemint.com: Dal-rice, jail mattress BRS K Kavitha shares cell with two female inmates on Day-1 in Tihar
When determining whether Advance Auto Parts is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Advance Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Advance Auto Parts Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Advance Auto Parts Stock:
Check out Advance Auto Backtesting, Advance Auto Valuation, Advance Auto Correlation, Advance Auto Hype Analysis, Advance Auto Volatility, Advance Auto History as well as Advance Auto Performance.
Note that the Advance Auto Parts information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Advance Auto's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the USA ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA.

Complementary Tools for Advance Stock analysis

When running Advance Auto's price analysis, check to measure Advance Auto's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Advance Auto is operating at the current time. Most of Advance Auto's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Advance Auto's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Advance Auto's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Advance Auto to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Advance Auto's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Advance Auto. If investors know Advance will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Advance Auto listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.40)
Dividend Share
2.25
Earnings Share
0.5
Revenue Per Share
189.925
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0)
The market value of Advance Auto Parts is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Advance that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Advance Auto's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Advance Auto's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Advance Auto's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Advance Auto's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Advance Auto's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Advance Auto is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Advance Auto's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.