American Airlines Group Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 35.52

AAL Stock  USD 15.30  0.38  2.55%   
American Airlines' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on American Airlines Group. Implied volatility approximates the future value of American Airlines based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in American Airlines Group over a specific time period. For example, 2024-03-28 CALL at $15.5 is a CALL option contract on American Airlines' common stock with a strick price of 15.5 expiring on 2024-03-28. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 15:58:41 for $0.03 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.03, and an ask price of $0.04. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 31.12. View All American options

Closest to current price American long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

American Airlines' future price is the expected price of American Airlines instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of American Airlines Group performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out American Airlines Backtesting, American Airlines Valuation, American Airlines Correlation, American Airlines Hype Analysis, American Airlines Volatility, American Airlines History as well as American Airlines Performance.
  
At this time, American Airlines' Price Earnings Ratio is quite stable compared to the past year. Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is expected to rise to 0.02 this year, although the value of Price To Sales Ratio will most likely fall to 0.14. Please specify American Airlines' target price for which you would like American Airlines odds to be computed.

American Airlines Target Price Odds to finish over 35.52

The tendency of American Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 35.52  or more in 90 days
 15.30 90 days 35.52 
close to zero percent
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of American Airlines to move over $ 35.52  or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This American Airlines Group probability density function shows the probability of American Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of American Airlines price to stay between its current price of $ 15.30  and $ 35.52  at the end of the 90-day period is about 10.16 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.94 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, American Airlines will likely underperform. Additionally American Airlines Group has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   American Airlines Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for American Airlines

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Airlines. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Airlines' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
12.4415.3318.22
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
12.0914.9717.86
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
12.9215.8118.71
Details
20 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
13.7815.1416.81
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as American Airlines. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against American Airlines' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, American Airlines' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in American Airlines.

American Airlines Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. American Airlines is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the American Airlines' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold American Airlines Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of American Airlines within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.12
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.94
σ
Overall volatility
0.66
Ir
Information ratio 0.0005

American Airlines Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of American Airlines for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for American Airlines can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company has 40.66 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 7.53, demonstrating that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. American Airlines has a current ratio of 0.77, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist American Airlines until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, American Airlines' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like American Airlines sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for American to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about American Airlines' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
American Airlines has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Latest headline from nypost.com: Im a former American Airlines flight attendant this is the best time to ask for a seat upgrade

American Airlines Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of American Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential American Airlines' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Airlines' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding719.7 M
Cash And Short Term Investments8.5 B

American Airlines Technical Analysis

American Airlines' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. American Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of American Airlines Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing American Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

American Airlines Predictive Forecast Models

American Airlines' time-series forecasting models is one of many American Airlines' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary American Airlines' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about American Airlines

Checking the ongoing alerts about American Airlines for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for American Airlines help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company has 40.66 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 7.53, demonstrating that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. American Airlines has a current ratio of 0.77, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist American Airlines until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, American Airlines' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like American Airlines sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for American to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about American Airlines' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
American Airlines has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Latest headline from nypost.com: Im a former American Airlines flight attendant this is the best time to ask for a seat upgrade
When determining whether American Airlines is a strong investment it is important to analyze American Airlines' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact American Airlines' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding American Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out American Airlines Backtesting, American Airlines Valuation, American Airlines Correlation, American Airlines Hype Analysis, American Airlines Volatility, American Airlines History as well as American Airlines Performance.
Note that the American Airlines information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other American Airlines' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.

Complementary Tools for American Stock analysis

When running American Airlines' price analysis, check to measure American Airlines' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Airlines is operating at the current time. Most of American Airlines' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Airlines' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Airlines' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Airlines to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is American Airlines' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Airlines. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Airlines listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.97)
Earnings Share
1.21
Revenue Per Share
80.764
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.01)
Return On Assets
0.0396
The market value of American Airlines is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Airlines' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Airlines' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Airlines' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Airlines' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Airlines' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American Airlines is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Airlines' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.