Alcoa Probability of Target Price Finishing Over 19.87

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AA -- USA Stock  

Fiscal Quarter End: March 31, 2020  

Alcoa probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Alcoa Corporation performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Alcoa time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Alcoa odds to be computed. Please continue to Alcoa Backtesting, Alcoa Valuation, Alcoa Correlation, Alcoa Hype Analysis, Alcoa Volatility, Alcoa History as well as Alcoa Performance.
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Alcoa Target Price Odds to finish over 19.87

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 19.87  or more in 30 days
 16.10 30 days 19.87 
about 31.96
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Alcoa to move over $ 19.87  or more in 30 days from now is about 31.96 (This Alcoa Corporation probability density function shows the probability of Alcoa Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Alcoa price to stay between its current price of $ 16.10  and $ 19.87  at the end of the 30-day period is about 52.26 .
Allowing for the 30-days total investment horizon, Alcoa has beta of 0.3126 . This suggests as returns on market go up, Alcoa average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Alcoa Corporation will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. Alcoa is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Alcoa Price Density 
Alpha over DOW
Beta against DOW=0.31
Overall volatility
Information ratio =0.15

Alcoa Alerts and Suggestions

Alcoa generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
The company generated yearly revenue of 11.34 B. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (794 M) with gross profit of 3.32 B.
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AlcoaPrice Density Drivers

Shares Percent Shares Out6.69%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.36
Short Percent Of Float8.64%
Float Shares175.29M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day5.37M
Shares Short Prior Month7.8M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month5.22M
Date Short InterestJanuary 31, 2020
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield2.24%