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Alcoa Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 11.73

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AA -- USA Stock  

Fiscal Quarter End: March 31, 2020  

Alcoa probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Alcoa Corporation performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Alcoa time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Alcoa odds to be computed. Please continue to Alcoa Backtesting, Alcoa Valuation, Alcoa Correlation, Alcoa Hype Analysis, Alcoa Volatility, Alcoa History as well as Alcoa Performance.
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Alcoa Target Price Odds to finish below 11.73

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 11.73  or more in 30 days
 15.67 30 days 11.73 
near 1
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Alcoa to drop to $ 11.73  or more in 30 days from now is near 1 (This Alcoa Corporation probability density function shows the probability of Alcoa Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Alcoa price to stay between $ 11.73  and its current price of $15.67 at the end of the 30-day period is about 8.82 .
Allowing for the 30-days total investment horizon, Alcoa has beta of 0.9826 . This suggests Alcoa Corporation market returns are sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Alcoa is expected to follow. Additionally The company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. Alcoa is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Alcoa Price Density 
    
  Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.58
β
Beta against DOW=0.98
σ
Overall volatility
=2.53
Ir
Information ratio =0.23

Alcoa Alerts and Suggestions

Alcoa generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
The company generated yearly revenue of 11.34 B. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (794 M) with gross profit of 3.32 B.
Latest headline from www.uspostnews.com: Are Being Overfed Alcoa Corporation , DICKS Sporting Goods - US Post News

AlcoaPrice Density Drivers

Shares Percent Shares Out3.80%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.36
Short Percent Of Float4.91%
Float Shares185.01M
Shares Short Prior Month8.87M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day7.36M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month4.93M
Date Short InterestJanuary 15, 2020
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield2.32%