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ADVANCED Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 171.01

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688012 -- China Stock  

CNY 180.21  18.61  11.52%

ADVANCED MICRO probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of ADVANCED MICRO FAB performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify ADVANCED MICRO time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like ADVANCED MICRO odds to be computed. Please continue to ADVANCED MICRO Backtesting, ADVANCED MICRO Valuation, ADVANCED MICRO Correlation, ADVANCED MICRO Hype Analysis, ADVANCED MICRO Volatility, ADVANCED MICRO History as well as ADVANCED MICRO Performance.
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ADVANCED MICRO Target Price Odds to finish below 171.01

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to Y 171.01  or more in 30 days
 180.21 30 days 171.01 
about 65.94
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of ADVANCED MICRO to drop to Y 171.01  or more in 30 days from now is about 65.94 (This ADVANCED MICRO FAB probability density function shows the probability of ADVANCED MICRO Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of ADVANCED MICRO FAB price to stay between Y 171.01  and its current price of Y180.21 at the end of the 30-day period is about 6.23 .
Assuming 30 trading days horizon, ADVANCED MICRO FAB has beta of -0.1481 . This suggests as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding ADVANCED MICRO are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, ADVANCED MICRO FAB is likely to outperform the market. In addition to that The company has an alpha of 2.5879 implying that it can potentially generate 2.5879% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 ADVANCED MICRO Price Density 
    
  Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=2.59
β
Beta against DOW=0.15
σ
Overall volatility
=51.93
Ir
Information ratio =0.32

ADVANCED MICRO Alerts and Suggestions

ADVANCED MICRO FAB appears to be very risky and stock price may revert if volatility continues

ADVANCED MICROPrice Density Drivers

Float Shares207.94M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day6.49M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month4.76M