On Semiconductor Stock Price Prediction
| ON Stock | USD 62.93 1.54 2.39% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
36
Oversold | Overbought |
ON Semiconductor stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of ON Semiconductor shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of ON Semiconductor's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of ON Semiconductor and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from ON Semiconductor's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with ON Semiconductor, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting ON Semiconductor's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.05) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.1 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.29 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.14 | Wall Street Target Price 87.88 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of ON Semiconductor based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The ON Semiconductor stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on ON Semiconductor over a specific investment horizon. Using ON Semiconductor hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ON Semiconductor from the perspective of ON Semiconductor response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards ON Semiconductor using ON Semiconductor's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards ON Semiconductor using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of ON Semiconductor's stock price.
ON Semiconductor Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in ON Semiconductor's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards ON Semiconductor. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of ON Semiconductor stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long ON Semiconductor may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about ON Semiconductor and may potentially protect profits, hedge ON Semiconductor with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 83.1688 | Short Percent 0.0705 | Short Ratio 3.51 | Shares Short Prior Month 20.7 M | 50 Day MA 75.4482 |
ON Semiconductor Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to ON Semiconductor's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in ON Semiconductor. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding ON Semiconductor can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around ON Semiconductor. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of ON Semiconductor's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about ON Semiconductor.
ON Semiconductor Implied Volatility | 69.84 |
ON Semiconductor's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of ON Semiconductor stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if ON Semiconductor's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that ON Semiconductor stock will not fluctuate a lot when ON Semiconductor's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in ON Semiconductor. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in ON Semiconductor to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying ON Semiconductor because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
ON Semiconductor after-hype prediction price | USD 62.5 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current ON Semiconductor contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that ON Semiconductor will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 4.36% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With ON Semiconductor trading at USD 62.93, that is roughly USD 2.75 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating ON Semiconductor's daily price movement you should consider acquiring ON Semiconductor options at the current volatility level of 69.84%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
ON Semiconductor |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ON Semiconductor's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
ON Semiconductor After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of ON Semiconductor at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ON Semiconductor or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ON Semiconductor, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
ON Semiconductor Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting ON Semiconductor's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ON Semiconductor's historical news coverage. ON Semiconductor's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 59.77 and 65.23, respectively. We have considered ON Semiconductor's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
ON Semiconductor is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ON Semiconductor is based on 3 months time horizon.
ON Semiconductor Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ON Semiconductor is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ON Semiconductor backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ON Semiconductor, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.25 | 2.73 | 0.43 | 0.22 | 11 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
62.93 | 62.50 | 0.68 |
|
ON Semiconductor Hype Timeline
As of April 19, 2024 ON Semiconductor is listed for 62.93. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.43, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.22. ON Semiconductor is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 62.5. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 159.65%. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -0.68%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.25%. The volatility of related hype on ON Semiconductor is about 314.52%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 62.71. About 100.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of ON Semiconductor was now reported as 18.25. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.29. ON Semiconductor had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 10:1 split on the 13th of March 2014. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 11 days. Check out ON Semiconductor Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.ON Semiconductor Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to ON Semiconductor's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ON Semiconductor's future price movements. Getting to know how ON Semiconductor's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ON Semiconductor may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TXN | Texas Instruments Incorporated | 1.30 | 9 per month | 1.36 | (0.03) | 2.63 | (2.45) | 6.88 | |
| MCHP | Microchip Technology | 1.41 | 10 per month | 2.04 | (0.03) | 3.40 | (3.90) | 11.12 | |
| ADI | Analog Devices | (0.34) | 12 per month | 1.68 | (0.03) | 2.45 | (2.50) | 7.59 | |
| QRVO | Qorvo Inc | (1.56) | 11 per month | 1.93 | 0.02 | 3.61 | (3.32) | 11.79 | |
| MPWR | Monolithic Power Systems | (8.94) | 10 per month | 2.28 | 0.01 | 4.54 | (3.56) | 18.81 | |
| NXPI | NXP Semiconductors NV | (3.05) | 12 per month | 1.96 | 0.02 | 2.98 | (2.89) | 7.58 | |
| NVTS | Navitas Semiconductor Corp | (0.33) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 6.41 | (7.82) | 21.29 | |
| GFS | Globalfoundries | 0.10 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 3.73 | (4.29) | 10.94 | |
| LSCC | Lattice Semiconductor | 1.42 | 9 per month | 2.75 | 0.01 | 4.49 | (4.05) | 12.92 | |
| WOLF | Wolfspeed | 1.31 | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 7.57 | (6.02) | 20.65 |
ON Semiconductor Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine ON Semiconductor price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ON Semiconductor using various technical indicators. When you analyze ON Semiconductor charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About ON Semiconductor Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of ON Semiconductor stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as ON Semiconductor, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of ON Semiconductor based on analysis of ON Semiconductor hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to ON Semiconductor's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to ON Semiconductor's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0428 | 0.0407 | Price To Sales Ratio | 4.36 | 4.58 |
Story Coverage note for ON Semiconductor
The number of cover stories for ON Semiconductor depends on current market conditions and ON Semiconductor's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ON Semiconductor is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ON Semiconductor's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
View All Premium Stories
ON Semiconductor Short Properties
ON Semiconductor's future price predictability will typically decrease when ON Semiconductor's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of ON Semiconductor often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential ON Semiconductor's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ON Semiconductor's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 446.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.5 B |
Check out ON Semiconductor Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in ON Semiconductor Stock, please use our How to Invest in ON Semiconductor guide.You can also try the Commodity Channel module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.
Complementary Tools for ON Semiconductor Stock analysis
When running ON Semiconductor's price analysis, check to measure ON Semiconductor's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ON Semiconductor is operating at the current time. Most of ON Semiconductor's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ON Semiconductor's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ON Semiconductor's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ON Semiconductor to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Bollinger Bands Use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon | |
| My Watchlist Analysis Analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like | |
| Performance Analysis Check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation | |
| Transaction History View history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance | |
| Financial Widgets Easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets | |
| USA ETFs Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA | |
| Top Crypto Exchanges Search and analyze digital assets across top global cryptocurrency exchanges | |
| Money Flow Index Determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators | |
| Stock Screener Find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook. | |
| Global Correlations Find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets |
Is ON Semiconductor's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ON Semiconductor. If investors know ON Semiconductor will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ON Semiconductor listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.05) | Earnings Share 4.89 | Revenue Per Share 19.162 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.04) | Return On Assets 0.1294 |
The market value of ON Semiconductor is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ON Semiconductor that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ON Semiconductor's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ON Semiconductor's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ON Semiconductor's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ON Semiconductor's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ON Semiconductor's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ON Semiconductor is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ON Semiconductor's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.