Walgreens Boots Alliance Stock Price Prediction
| WBA Stock | USD 18.24 0.65 3.70% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
38
Oversold | Overbought |
Walgreens Boots Alliance stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Walgreens Boots shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Walgreens Boots' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Walgreens Boots and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Walgreens Boots' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Walgreens Boots Alliance, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Walgreens Boots' stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.59) | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.04 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.95 | Wall Street Target Price 21.38 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.75 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Walgreens Boots based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Walgreens stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Walgreens Boots over a specific investment horizon. Using Walgreens Boots hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Walgreens Boots Alliance from the perspective of Walgreens Boots response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Walgreens Boots using Walgreens Boots' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Walgreens using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Walgreens Boots' stock price.
Walgreens Boots Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Walgreens Boots' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Walgreens. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Walgreens Boots stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Walgreens Boots may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Walgreens Boots and may potentially protect profits, hedge Walgreens Boots with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 23.3943 | Short Percent 0.056 | Short Ratio 3.38 | Shares Short Prior Month 31.2 M | 50 Day MA 20.6454 |
Walgreens Boots Alliance Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Walgreens Boots' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Walgreens. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Walgreens can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Walgreens Boots Alliance. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Walgreens Boots' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Walgreens Boots.
Walgreens Boots Implied Volatility | 175.23 |
Walgreens Boots' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Walgreens Boots Alliance stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Walgreens Boots' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Walgreens Boots stock will not fluctuate a lot when Walgreens Boots' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Walgreens Boots. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Walgreens Boots to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Walgreens because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Walgreens Boots after-hype prediction price | USD 17.6 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Walgreens contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Walgreens Boots Alliance will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 10.95% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Walgreens Boots trading at USD 18.24, that is roughly USD 2.0 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Walgreens Boots' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Walgreens Boots Alliance options at the current volatility level of 175.23%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Walgreens |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Walgreens Boots' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Walgreens Boots After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Walgreens Boots at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Walgreens Boots or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Walgreens Boots, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Walgreens Boots Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Walgreens Boots' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Walgreens Boots' historical news coverage. Walgreens Boots' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 15.23 and 19.97, respectively. We have considered Walgreens Boots' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Walgreens Boots is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Walgreens Boots Alliance is based on 3 months time horizon.
Walgreens Boots Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Walgreens Boots is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Walgreens Boots backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Walgreens Boots, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.29 | 2.42 | 0.01 | 0.25 | 8 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
18.24 | 17.60 | 0.06 |
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Walgreens Boots Hype Timeline
On the 19th of April Walgreens Boots Alliance is traded for 18.24. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.25. Walgreens is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 17.6 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.06%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.29%. The volatility of related hype on Walgreens Boots is about 277.36%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 17.99. The company reported the last year's revenue of 139.08 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (3.53 B) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 27.07 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Walgreens Boots Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Walgreens Boots Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Walgreens Boots' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Walgreens Boots' future price movements. Getting to know how Walgreens Boots' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Walgreens Boots may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PETS | PetMed Express | (0.06) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.39) | 2.39 | (3.88) | 14.22 | |
| BIMI | Bimi International Medical | (0.13) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 17.46 | (12.90) | 37.28 | |
| FFLWF | Fire Flower Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| GABLF | GABY Inc | (3.30) | 22 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Walgreens Boots Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Walgreens price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Walgreens using various technical indicators. When you analyze Walgreens charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Walgreens Boots Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Walgreens Boots stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Walgreens Boots Alliance, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Walgreens Boots based on analysis of Walgreens Boots hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Walgreens Boots's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Walgreens Boots's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0547 | 0.0759 | 0.0683 | 0.0718 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.23 | 0.16 | 0.18 | 0.17 |
Story Coverage note for Walgreens Boots
The number of cover stories for Walgreens Boots depends on current market conditions and Walgreens Boots' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Walgreens Boots is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Walgreens Boots' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Walgreens Boots Short Properties
Walgreens Boots' future price predictability will typically decrease when Walgreens Boots' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Walgreens Boots Alliance often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Walgreens Boots' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Walgreens Boots' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 863.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 739 M |
Check out Walgreens Boots Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Walgreens Boots Alliance information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Walgreens Boots' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.
Complementary Tools for Walgreens Stock analysis
When running Walgreens Boots' price analysis, check to measure Walgreens Boots' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Walgreens Boots is operating at the current time. Most of Walgreens Boots' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Walgreens Boots' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Walgreens Boots' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Walgreens Boots to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Walgreens Boots' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Walgreens Boots. If investors know Walgreens will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Walgreens Boots listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.59) | Dividend Share 1.69 | Earnings Share (7.00) | Revenue Per Share 167.542 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.063 |
The market value of Walgreens Boots Alliance is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Walgreens that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Walgreens Boots' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Walgreens Boots' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Walgreens Boots' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Walgreens Boots' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Walgreens Boots' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Walgreens Boots is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Walgreens Boots' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.