Umb Financial Stock Price Prediction

UMBF Stock  USD 86.99  1.38  1.61%   
As of 28th of March 2024, the relative strength index (RSI) of UMB Financial's share price is approaching 43. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling UMB Financial, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

43

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
UMB Financial stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of UMB Financial shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of UMB Financial's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of UMB Financial and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from UMB Financial's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with UMB Financial, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting UMB Financial's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.30)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
1.66
EPS Estimate Current Year
7.24
EPS Estimate Next Year
7.75
Wall Street Target Price
92.67
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of UMB Financial based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The UMB stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on UMB Financial over a specific investment horizon. Using UMB Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of UMB Financial from the perspective of UMB Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards UMB Financial using UMB Financial's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards UMB using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of UMB Financial's stock price.

UMB Financial Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in UMB Financial's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards UMB. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of UMB Financial stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long UMB Financial may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about UMB Financial and may potentially protect profits, hedge UMB Financial with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
71.1977
Short Percent
0.0142
Short Ratio
2.14
Shares Short Prior Month
545.9 K
50 Day MA
81.1062

UMB Financial Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to UMB Financial's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in UMB. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding UMB can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around UMB Financial. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of UMB Financial's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about UMB Financial.

UMB Financial Implied Volatility

    
  34.39  
UMB Financial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of UMB Financial stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if UMB Financial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that UMB Financial stock will not fluctuate a lot when UMB Financial's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in UMB Financial. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in UMB Financial to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying UMB because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

UMB Financial after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 86.81  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current UMB contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that UMB Financial will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.15% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With UMB Financial trading at USD 86.99, that is roughly USD 1.87 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating UMB Financial's daily price movement you should consider acquiring UMB Financial options at the current volatility level of 34.39%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out UMB Financial Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in UMB Stock please use our How to Invest in UMB Financial guide.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of UMB Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
74.3676.0595.54
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
68.0774.8083.03
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.621.741.82
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as UMB Financial. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against UMB Financial's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, UMB Financial's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in UMB Financial.

UMB Financial After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of UMB Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in UMB Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of UMB Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

UMB Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting UMB Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on UMB Financial's historical news coverage. UMB Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 85.12 and 88.50, respectively. We have considered UMB Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
86.99
86.81
After-hype Price
88.50
Upside
UMB Financial is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of UMB Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.

UMB Financial Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as UMB Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading UMB Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with UMB Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.06 
1.69
  0.04 
 0.00  
8 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
In about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
86.99
86.81
0.05 
277.05  
Notes

UMB Financial Hype Timeline

UMB Financial is at this time traded for 86.99. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. UMB is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 86.81. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.05%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.06%. The volatility of related hype on UMB Financial is about 4023.81%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 86.99. About 89.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 1.3. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. UMB Financial has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.73. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 7.18. The firm last dividend was issued on the 8th of March 2024. UMB Financial had 2:1 split on the 31st of May 2006. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days.
Check out UMB Financial Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in UMB Stock please use our How to Invest in UMB Financial guide.

UMB Financial Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to UMB Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict UMB Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how UMB Financial rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how UMB Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

UMB Financial Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine UMB price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for UMB using various technical indicators. When you analyze UMB charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About UMB Financial Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of UMB Financial stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as UMB Financial, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of UMB Financial based on analysis of UMB Financial hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to UMB Financial's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to UMB Financial's related companies.
 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Price Earnings Ratio9.3511.5813.18
Short Term Coverage Ratios0.340.120.11

Story Coverage note for UMB Financial

The number of cover stories for UMB Financial depends on current market conditions and UMB Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that UMB Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about UMB Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

UMB Financial Short Properties

UMB Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when UMB Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of UMB Financial often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential UMB Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. UMB Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding48.8 M
Cash And Short Term Investments447.2 M
When determining whether UMB Financial is a strong investment it is important to analyze UMB Financial's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact UMB Financial's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding UMB Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out UMB Financial Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in UMB Stock please use our How to Invest in UMB Financial guide.
Note that the UMB Financial information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other UMB Financial's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Commodity Directory module to find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges.

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When running UMB Financial's price analysis, check to measure UMB Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy UMB Financial is operating at the current time. Most of UMB Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of UMB Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move UMB Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of UMB Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is UMB Financial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of UMB Financial. If investors know UMB will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about UMB Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.30)
Dividend Share
1.53
Earnings Share
7.18
Revenue Per Share
29.291
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.025
The market value of UMB Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of UMB that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of UMB Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is UMB Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because UMB Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect UMB Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between UMB Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if UMB Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, UMB Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.