Post Holdings Stock Price Prediction

POST Stock  USD 106.28  0.59  0.55%   
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Post Holdings' share price is at 56 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Post Holdings, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

56

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Post Holdings stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Post Holdings shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Post Holdings' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Post Holdings and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Post Holdings' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Post Holdings, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Post Holdings' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.12)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
1.16
EPS Estimate Current Year
5.53
EPS Estimate Next Year
6.39
Wall Street Target Price
113.33
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Post Holdings based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Post stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Post Holdings over a specific investment horizon. Using Post Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Post Holdings from the perspective of Post Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Post Holdings using Post Holdings' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Post using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Post Holdings' stock price.

Post Holdings Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Post Holdings' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Post. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Post Holdings stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Post Holdings may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Post Holdings and may potentially protect profits, hedge Post Holdings with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
90.3021
Short Percent
0.036
Short Ratio
4.43
Shares Short Prior Month
1.8 M
50 Day MA
101.7048

Post Holdings Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Post Holdings' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Post. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Post can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Post Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Post Holdings' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Post Holdings.

Post Holdings Implied Volatility

    
  18.9  
Post Holdings' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Post Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Post Holdings' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Post Holdings stock will not fluctuate a lot when Post Holdings' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Post Holdings. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Post Holdings to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Post because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Post Holdings after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 106.28  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Post contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Post Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.18% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Post Holdings trading at USD 106.28, that is roughly USD 1.26 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Post Holdings' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Post Holdings options at the current volatility level of 18.9%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out Post Holdings Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Post Stock please use our How to Invest in Post Holdings guide.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Post Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
95.65120.91122.32
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
108.84110.25111.66
Details
10 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
95.55105.00116.55
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.191.271.43
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Post Holdings. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Post Holdings' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Post Holdings' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Post Holdings.

Post Holdings After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Post Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Post Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Post Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Post Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Post Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Post Holdings' historical news coverage. Post Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 104.87 and 107.69, respectively. We have considered Post Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
106.28
104.87
Downside
106.28
After-hype Price
107.69
Upside
Post Holdings is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Post Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.

Post Holdings Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Post Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Post Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Post Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.25 
1.34
  0.12 
  0.03 
10 Events / Month
3 Events / Month
In about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
106.28
106.28
0.00 
279.17  
Notes

Post Holdings Hype Timeline

Post Holdings is at this time traded for 106.28. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.12, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. Post is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.25%. %. The volatility of related hype on Post Holdings is about 1182.35%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 106.25. About 19.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.64. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Post Holdings has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.19. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 1528:1000 split on the 11th of March 2022. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 10 days.
Check out Post Holdings Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Post Stock please use our How to Invest in Post Holdings guide.

Post Holdings Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Post Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Post Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how Post Holdings rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Post Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Post Holdings Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Post price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Post using various technical indicators. When you analyze Post charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Post Holdings Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Post Holdings stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Post Holdings, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Post Holdings based on analysis of Post Holdings hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Post Holdings's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Post Holdings's related companies.
 2020 2021 2024 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.260.110.088
Price To Sales Ratio1.140.850.71

Story Coverage note for Post Holdings

The number of cover stories for Post Holdings depends on current market conditions and Post Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Post Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Post Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Post Holdings Short Properties

Post Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when Post Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Post Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Post Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Post Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding67 M
Cash And Short Term Investments93.3 M
When determining whether Post Holdings is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Post Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Post Holdings Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Post Holdings Stock:
Check out Post Holdings Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Post Stock please use our How to Invest in Post Holdings guide.
You can also try the Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.

Complementary Tools for Post Stock analysis

When running Post Holdings' price analysis, check to measure Post Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Post Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of Post Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Post Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Post Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Post Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Post Holdings' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Post Holdings. If investors know Post will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Post Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.12)
Earnings Share
4.65
Revenue Per Share
122.31
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.255
Return On Assets
0.039
The market value of Post Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Post that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Post Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Post Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Post Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Post Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Post Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Post Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Post Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.