Procter Gamble Stock Price Prediction
| PG Stock | USD 158.14 0.85 0.54% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
36
Oversold | Overbought |
Procter Gamble stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Procter Gamble shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Procter Gamble's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Procter Gamble and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Procter Gamble's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Procter Gamble, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Procter Gamble's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.11) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.45 | EPS Estimate Current Year 6.45 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.93 | Wall Street Target Price 170.37 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Procter Gamble based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Procter stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Procter Gamble over a specific investment horizon. Using Procter Gamble hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Procter Gamble from the perspective of Procter Gamble response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Procter Gamble using Procter Gamble's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Procter using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Procter Gamble's stock price.
Procter Gamble Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Procter Gamble's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Procter. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Procter Gamble stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Procter Gamble may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Procter Gamble and may potentially protect profits, hedge Procter Gamble with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 152.8189 | Short Percent 0.0072 | Short Ratio 2.91 | Shares Short Prior Month 17.9 M | 50 Day MA 159.0882 |
Procter Gamble Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Procter Gamble's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Procter. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Procter can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Procter Gamble. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Procter Gamble's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Procter Gamble.
Procter Gamble Implied Volatility | 79.29 |
Procter Gamble's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Procter Gamble stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Procter Gamble's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Procter Gamble stock will not fluctuate a lot when Procter Gamble's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Procter Gamble. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Procter Gamble to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Procter because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Procter Gamble after-hype prediction price | USD 156.99 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Procter contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Procter Gamble will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 4.96% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Procter Gamble trading at USD 158.14, that is roughly USD 7.84 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Procter Gamble's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Procter Gamble options at the current volatility level of 79.29%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Procter |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Procter Gamble's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Procter Gamble After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Procter Gamble at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Procter Gamble or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Procter Gamble, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Procter Gamble Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Procter Gamble's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Procter Gamble's historical news coverage. Procter Gamble's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 156.11 and 157.87, respectively. We have considered Procter Gamble's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Procter Gamble is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Procter Gamble is based on 3 months time horizon.
Procter Gamble Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Procter Gamble is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Procter Gamble backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Procter Gamble, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 0.88 | 0.30 | 0.25 | 8 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
158.14 | 156.99 | 0.19 |
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Procter Gamble Hype Timeline
As of April 19, 2024 Procter Gamble is listed for 158.14. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.3, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.25. Procter is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 156.99. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 32.47%. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -0.19%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.11%. The volatility of related hype on Procter Gamble is about 39.18%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 157.89. About 68.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.96. Procter Gamble last dividend was issued on the 18th of April 2024. The entity had 2:1 split on the 21st of June 2004. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Procter Gamble Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Procter Gamble Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Procter Gamble's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Procter Gamble's future price movements. Getting to know how Procter Gamble's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Procter Gamble may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| UL | Unilever PLC ADR | (0.39) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 1.59 | (1.36) | 5.52 | |
| EL | Estee Lauder Companies | 0.67 | 9 per month | 1.90 | 0.05 | 4.11 | (3.23) | 16.61 | |
| ELF | ELF Beauty | (11.19) | 11 per month | 3.08 | 0 | 5.18 | (4.12) | 19.27 | |
| COTY | Coty Inc | 0.09 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.93 | (2.79) | 10.14 | |
| KVUE | Kenvue Inc | (0.41) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 1.61 | (2.31) | 8.13 |
Procter Gamble Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Procter price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Procter using various technical indicators. When you analyze Procter charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Procter Gamble Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Procter Gamble stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Procter Gamble, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Procter Gamble based on analysis of Procter Gamble hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Procter Gamble's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Procter Gamble's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0253 | 0.025 | 0.0225 | 0.0209 | Price To Sales Ratio | 4.32 | 4.38 | 3.94 | 4.14 |
Story Coverage note for Procter Gamble
The number of cover stories for Procter Gamble depends on current market conditions and Procter Gamble's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Procter Gamble is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Procter Gamble's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Procter Gamble Short Properties
Procter Gamble's future price predictability will typically decrease when Procter Gamble's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Procter Gamble often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Procter Gamble's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Procter Gamble's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.5 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 8.2 B |
Check out Procter Gamble Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Procter Stock please use our How to Invest in Procter Gamble guide.Note that the Procter Gamble information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Procter Gamble's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.
Complementary Tools for Procter Stock analysis
When running Procter Gamble's price analysis, check to measure Procter Gamble's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Procter Gamble is operating at the current time. Most of Procter Gamble's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Procter Gamble's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Procter Gamble's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Procter Gamble to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Procter Gamble's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Procter Gamble. If investors know Procter will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Procter Gamble listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.11) | Dividend Share 3.735 | Earnings Share 5.96 | Revenue Per Share 35.567 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.032 |
The market value of Procter Gamble is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Procter that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Procter Gamble's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Procter Gamble's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Procter Gamble's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Procter Gamble's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Procter Gamble's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Procter Gamble is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Procter Gamble's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.