Nio Class A Stock Price Prediction

NIO Stock  USD 4.67  0.11  2.30%   
As of today, the relative strength index (RSI) of Nio's share price is approaching 47. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Nio, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

47

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Nio Class A stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Nio shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Nio's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Nio and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Nio's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Nio Class A, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Nio's stock price prediction:
EPS Estimate Current Year
(0.95)
EPS Estimate Next Year
(0.13)
Wall Street Target Price
15.21
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
(0.34)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.065
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Nio based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Nio stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Nio over a specific investment horizon. Using Nio hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Nio Class A from the perspective of Nio response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Nio using Nio's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Nio using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Nio's stock price.

Nio Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Nio's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Nio. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Nio stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Nio may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Nio and may potentially protect profits, hedge Nio with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
8.4769
Short Percent
0.0463
Short Ratio
3.46
Shares Short Prior Month
161.1 M
50 Day MA
5.7592

Nio Class A Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Nio's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Nio. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Nio can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Nio Class A. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Nio's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Nio.

Nio Implied Volatility

    
  118.33  
Nio's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Nio Class A stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Nio's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Nio stock will not fluctuate a lot when Nio's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Nio. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Nio to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Nio because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Nio after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 4.37  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Nio contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Nio Class A will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 7.4% per day over the life of the 2024-03-28 option contract. With Nio trading at USD 4.67, that is roughly USD 0.35 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Nio's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Nio Class A options at the current volatility level of 118.33%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out Nio Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Nio's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
3.467.2911.12
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
0.624.458.29
Details
28 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
13.8415.2116.88
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-0.25-0.030.15
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Nio. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Nio's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Nio's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Nio Class A.

Nio After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Nio at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Nio or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Nio, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Nio Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Nio's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Nio's historical news coverage. Nio's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.54 and 8.20, respectively. We have considered Nio's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
4.67
4.37
After-hype Price
8.20
Upside
Nio is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Nio Class A is based on 3 months time horizon.

Nio Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Nio is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Nio backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Nio, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  1.01 
3.82
  0.29 
  0.11 
10 Events / Month
3 Events / Month
In about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
4.67
4.37
6.42 
1,317  
Notes

Nio Hype Timeline

On the 28th of March Nio Class A is traded for 4.67. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.29, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.11. Nio is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 4.37. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -6.42%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -1.01%. The volatility of related hype on Nio is about 3383.53%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.56. About 23.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Nio was now reported as 14.5. The company recorded a loss per share of 1.74. Nio Class A last dividend was issued on the 2nd of May 2016. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days.
Check out Nio Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Nio Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Nio's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Nio's future price movements. Getting to know how Nio rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Nio may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Nio Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Nio price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Nio using various technical indicators. When you analyze Nio charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Nio Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Nio stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Nio Class A, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Nio based on analysis of Nio hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Nio's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Nio's related companies.
 2023 2024 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.180.16
Price To Sales Ratio2.011.91

Story Coverage note for Nio

The number of cover stories for Nio depends on current market conditions and Nio's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Nio is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Nio's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Nio Short Properties

Nio's future price predictability will typically decrease when Nio's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Nio Class A often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Nio's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Nio's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.6 B
Cash And Short Term Investments39.1 B
When determining whether Nio Class A offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Nio's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Nio Class A Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Nio Class A Stock:
Check out Nio Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.

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Is Nio's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Nio. If investors know Nio will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Nio listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(1.74)
Revenue Per Share
32.713
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.065
Return On Assets
(0.13)
Return On Equity
(0.73)
The market value of Nio Class A is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Nio that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Nio's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Nio's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Nio's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Nio's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Nio's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Nio is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Nio's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.