NOVAGOLD RESOURCES (Germany) Price Prediction
| NGR Stock | EUR 2.58 0.27 9.47% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
67
Oversold | Overbought |
NOVAGOLD RESOURCES stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of NOVAGOLD RESOURCES shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of NOVAGOLD RESOURCES's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of NOVAGOLD RESOURCES and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from NOVAGOLD RESOURCES's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with NOVAGOLD RESOURCES, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of NOVAGOLD RESOURCES based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The NOVAGOLD stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on NOVAGOLD RESOURCES over a specific investment horizon. Using NOVAGOLD RESOURCES hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of NOVAGOLD RESOURCES from the perspective of NOVAGOLD RESOURCES response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in NOVAGOLD RESOURCES. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in NOVAGOLD RESOURCES to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying NOVAGOLD because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
NOVAGOLD RESOURCES after-hype prediction price | EUR 2.58 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
NOVAGOLD |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of NOVAGOLD RESOURCES's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
NOVAGOLD RESOURCES After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of NOVAGOLD RESOURCES at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in NOVAGOLD RESOURCES or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of NOVAGOLD RESOURCES, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
NOVAGOLD RESOURCES Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting NOVAGOLD RESOURCES's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on NOVAGOLD RESOURCES's historical news coverage. NOVAGOLD RESOURCES's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.13 and 6.70, respectively. We have considered NOVAGOLD RESOURCES's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
NOVAGOLD RESOURCES is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of NOVAGOLD RESOURCES is based on 3 months time horizon.
NOVAGOLD RESOURCES Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as NOVAGOLD RESOURCES is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading NOVAGOLD RESOURCES backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with NOVAGOLD RESOURCES, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 4.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
2.58 | 2.58 | 0.00 |
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NOVAGOLD RESOURCES Hype Timeline
NOVAGOLD RESOURCES is now traded for 2.58on Berlin Exchange of Germany. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. NOVAGOLD is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.09%. %. The volatility of related hype on NOVAGOLD RESOURCES is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.58. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be uncertain. Check out NOVAGOLD RESOURCES Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade NOVAGOLD Stock refer to our How to Trade NOVAGOLD Stock guide.NOVAGOLD RESOURCES Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to NOVAGOLD RESOURCES's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict NOVAGOLD RESOURCES's future price movements. Getting to know how NOVAGOLD RESOURCES's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how NOVAGOLD RESOURCES may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ALK | Alaska Air Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.23 | 0.19 | 4.18 | (2.32) | 10.35 | |
| GI4 | G III APPAREL GROUP | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.73 | (4.14) | 15.60 | |
| RY4C | Ryanair Holdings plc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.14 | 0.10 | 3.37 | (1.93) | 7.63 | |
| 90AA | ALTAIR RES INC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 2U0 | SOGECLAIR SA INH | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.81 | 0.18 | 1.91 | (1.41) | 7.70 | |
| 9M5 | MYFAIR GOLD P | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.29 | (4.79) | 15.35 |
NOVAGOLD RESOURCES Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine NOVAGOLD price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for NOVAGOLD using various technical indicators. When you analyze NOVAGOLD charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About NOVAGOLD RESOURCES Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of NOVAGOLD RESOURCES stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as NOVAGOLD RESOURCES, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of NOVAGOLD RESOURCES based on analysis of NOVAGOLD RESOURCES hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to NOVAGOLD RESOURCES's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to NOVAGOLD RESOURCES's related companies. Story Coverage note for NOVAGOLD RESOURCES
The number of cover stories for NOVAGOLD RESOURCES depends on current market conditions and NOVAGOLD RESOURCES's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that NOVAGOLD RESOURCES is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about NOVAGOLD RESOURCES's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
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NOVAGOLD RESOURCES Short Properties
NOVAGOLD RESOURCES's future price predictability will typically decrease when NOVAGOLD RESOURCES's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of NOVAGOLD RESOURCES often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential NOVAGOLD RESOURCES's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. NOVAGOLD RESOURCES's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 333.8 M |
Check out NOVAGOLD RESOURCES Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade NOVAGOLD Stock refer to our How to Trade NOVAGOLD Stock guide.You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
Complementary Tools for NOVAGOLD Stock analysis
When running NOVAGOLD RESOURCES's price analysis, check to measure NOVAGOLD RESOURCES's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy NOVAGOLD RESOURCES is operating at the current time. Most of NOVAGOLD RESOURCES's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of NOVAGOLD RESOURCES's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move NOVAGOLD RESOURCES's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of NOVAGOLD RESOURCES to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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