Marriott International Stock Price Prediction
| MAR Stock | USD 236.30 2.16 0.91% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
57
Oversold | Overbought |
Marriott International stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Marriott International shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Marriott International's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Marriott International and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Marriott International's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Marriott International, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Marriott International's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.354 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.3 | EPS Estimate Current Year 9.44 | EPS Estimate Next Year 10.74 | Wall Street Target Price 246.53 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Marriott International based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Marriott stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Marriott International over a specific investment horizon. Using Marriott International hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Marriott International from the perspective of Marriott International response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Marriott International using Marriott International's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Marriott using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Marriott International's stock price.
Marriott International Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Marriott International's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Marriott. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Marriott International stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Marriott International may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Marriott International and may potentially protect profits, hedge Marriott International with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 216.3168 | Short Percent 0.0249 | Short Ratio 3.92 | Shares Short Prior Month 5.9 M | 50 Day MA 248.8862 |
Marriott International Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Marriott International's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Marriott. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Marriott can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Marriott International. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Marriott International's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Marriott International.
Marriott International Implied Volatility | 42.01 |
Marriott International's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Marriott International stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Marriott International's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Marriott International stock will not fluctuate a lot when Marriott International's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Marriott International. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Marriott International to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Marriott because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Marriott International after-hype prediction price | USD 236.3 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Marriott contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Marriott International will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.63% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Marriott International trading at USD 236.3, that is roughly USD 6.2 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Marriott International's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Marriott International options at the current volatility level of 42.01%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Marriott |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Marriott International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Marriott International After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Marriott International at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Marriott International or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Marriott International, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Marriott International Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Marriott International's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Marriott International's historical news coverage. Marriott International's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 234.99 and 237.61, respectively. We have considered Marriott International's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Marriott International is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Marriott International is based on 3 months time horizon.
Marriott International Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Marriott International is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Marriott International backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Marriott International, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 1.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 11 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
236.30 | 236.30 | 0.00 |
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Marriott International Hype Timeline
On the 19th of April Marriott International is traded for 236.30. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Marriott is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 63.59%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on Marriott International is about 618.9%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 236.30. About 18.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.53. Marriott International recorded earning per share (EPS) of 10.17. The entity last dividend was issued on the 21st of February 2024. The firm had 1061:1000 split on the 22nd of November 2011. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Marriott International Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Marriott International Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Marriott International's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Marriott International's future price movements. Getting to know how Marriott International's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Marriott International may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| YTRA | Yatra Online | (0.01) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 3.40 | (4.52) | 14.67 | |
| DESP | Despegar Corp | (0.13) | 7 per month | 2.69 | 0.09 | 5.72 | (4.59) | 21.38 | |
| MOND | Mondee Holdings | 0.03 | 8 per month | 4.64 | 0 | 6.81 | (8.95) | 25.63 | |
| MMYT | MakeMyTrip Limited | 0.79 | 11 per month | 2.80 | 0.13 | 3.85 | (3.76) | 17.67 | |
| TRIP | TripAdvisor | 0.59 | 6 per month | 1.34 | 0.14 | 3.80 | (2.20) | 18.53 | |
| ISPOW | Thayer Ventures Acquisition | 0.00 | 1 per month | 12.00 | 0.12 | 26.67 | (25.00) | 170.23 |
Marriott International Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Marriott price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Marriott using various technical indicators. When you analyze Marriott charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Marriott International Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Marriott International stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Marriott International, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Marriott International based on analysis of Marriott International hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Marriott International's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Marriott International's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.001665 | 0.006646 | 0.008633 | 0.007092 | Price To Sales Ratio | 3.9 | 2.33 | 2.87 | 3.01 |
Story Coverage note for Marriott International
The number of cover stories for Marriott International depends on current market conditions and Marriott International's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Marriott International is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Marriott International's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Marriott International Short Properties
Marriott International's future price predictability will typically decrease when Marriott International's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Marriott International often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Marriott International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Marriott International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 302.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 338 M |
Check out Marriott International Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Marriott Stock, please use our How to Invest in Marriott International guide.Note that the Marriott International information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Marriott International's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the USA ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA.
Complementary Tools for Marriott Stock analysis
When running Marriott International's price analysis, check to measure Marriott International's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Marriott International is operating at the current time. Most of Marriott International's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Marriott International's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Marriott International's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Marriott International to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Marriott International's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Marriott International. If investors know Marriott will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Marriott International listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.354 | Dividend Share 1.96 | Earnings Share 10.17 | Revenue Per Share 20.896 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.116 |
The market value of Marriott International is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Marriott that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Marriott International's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Marriott International's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Marriott International's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Marriott International's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Marriott International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Marriott International is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Marriott International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.