Hilton Grand Vacations Stock Price Prediction
| HGV Stock | USD 43.11 0.05 0.12% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
47
Oversold | Overbought |
Hilton Grand Vacations stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Hilton Grand shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Hilton Grand's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Hilton Grand and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Hilton Grand's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Hilton Grand Vacations, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Hilton Grand's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.07) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.65 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.19 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.82 | Wall Street Target Price 56.86 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Hilton Grand based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Hilton stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Hilton Grand over a specific investment horizon. Using Hilton Grand hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Hilton Grand Vacations from the perspective of Hilton Grand response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Hilton Grand using Hilton Grand's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Hilton using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Hilton Grand's stock price.
Hilton Grand Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Hilton Grand's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Hilton. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Hilton Grand stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Hilton Grand may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Hilton Grand and may potentially protect profits, hedge Hilton Grand with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 41.9613 | Short Percent 0.0625 | Short Ratio 5.26 | Shares Short Prior Month 4.7 M | 50 Day MA 45.0952 |
Hilton Grand Vacations Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Hilton Grand's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Hilton. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Hilton can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Hilton Grand Vacations. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Hilton Grand's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Hilton Grand.
Hilton Grand Implied Volatility | 0.0 |
Hilton Grand's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Hilton Grand Vacations stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Hilton Grand's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Hilton Grand stock will not fluctuate a lot when Hilton Grand's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Hilton Grand. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Hilton Grand to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Hilton because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Hilton Grand after-hype prediction price | USD 43.12 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Hilton |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hilton Grand's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hilton Grand After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Hilton Grand at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Hilton Grand or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Hilton Grand, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Hilton Grand Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Hilton Grand's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Hilton Grand's historical news coverage. Hilton Grand's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 41.05 and 45.19, respectively. We have considered Hilton Grand's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Hilton Grand is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Hilton Grand Vacations is based on 3 months time horizon.
Hilton Grand Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Hilton Grand is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Hilton Grand backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Hilton Grand, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 2.07 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 8 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
43.11 | 43.12 | 0.02 |
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Hilton Grand Hype Timeline
On the 19th of April Hilton Grand Vacations is traded for 43.11. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Hilton is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 43.12 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price increase on the next news is projected to be 0.02%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.06%. The volatility of related hype on Hilton Grand is about 977.95%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 43.12. The company reported the last year's revenue of 3.98 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 313 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.15 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Hilton Grand Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Hilton Grand Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Hilton Grand's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Hilton Grand's future price movements. Getting to know how Hilton Grand's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Hilton Grand may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| YTRA | Yatra Online | (0.01) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 3.40 | (4.52) | 14.67 | |
| DESP | Despegar Corp | (0.13) | 7 per month | 2.69 | 0.09 | 5.72 | (4.59) | 21.38 | |
| MOND | Mondee Holdings | 0.03 | 8 per month | 4.64 | 0 | 6.81 | (8.95) | 25.63 | |
| MMYT | MakeMyTrip Limited | 0.79 | 11 per month | 2.80 | 0.13 | 3.85 | (3.76) | 17.67 | |
| TRIP | TripAdvisor | 0.59 | 6 per month | 1.34 | 0.14 | 3.80 | (2.20) | 18.53 | |
| ISPOW | Thayer Ventures Acquisition | 0.00 | 1 per month | 12.00 | 0.12 | 26.67 | (25.00) | 170.23 |
Hilton Grand Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Hilton price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Hilton using various technical indicators. When you analyze Hilton charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Hilton Grand Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Hilton Grand stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Hilton Grand Vacations, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Hilton Grand based on analysis of Hilton Grand hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Hilton Grand's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Hilton Grand's related companies. | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.001539 | 0.25 | 0.26 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.23 | 1.11 | 2.02 |
Story Coverage note for Hilton Grand
The number of cover stories for Hilton Grand depends on current market conditions and Hilton Grand's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Hilton Grand is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Hilton Grand's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Hilton Grand Short Properties
Hilton Grand's future price predictability will typically decrease when Hilton Grand's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Hilton Grand Vacations often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Hilton Grand's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Hilton Grand's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 111.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 885 M |
Check out Hilton Grand Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Hilton Grand Vacations information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Hilton Grand's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Cryptocurrency Center module to build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency.
Complementary Tools for Hilton Stock analysis
When running Hilton Grand's price analysis, check to measure Hilton Grand's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hilton Grand is operating at the current time. Most of Hilton Grand's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hilton Grand's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hilton Grand's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hilton Grand to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Hilton Grand's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Hilton Grand. If investors know Hilton will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Hilton Grand listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.07) | Earnings Share 2.8 | Revenue Per Share 32.625 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.013 | Return On Assets 0.0537 |
The market value of Hilton Grand Vacations is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Hilton that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Hilton Grand's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Hilton Grand's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Hilton Grand's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Hilton Grand's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Hilton Grand's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Hilton Grand is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Hilton Grand's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.