Hawaiian Holdings Stock Price Prediction

HA Stock  USD 13.32  0.02  0.15%   
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Hawaiian Holdings' share price is approaching 36. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Hawaiian Holdings, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

36

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Hawaiian Holdings stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Hawaiian Holdings shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Hawaiian Holdings' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Hawaiian Holdings and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Hawaiian Holdings' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Hawaiian Holdings, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Hawaiian Holdings' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.08)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
(1.76)
EPS Estimate Current Year
(3.75)
EPS Estimate Next Year
(0.77)
Wall Street Target Price
10.5
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Hawaiian Holdings based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Hawaiian stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Hawaiian Holdings over a specific investment horizon. Using Hawaiian Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Hawaiian Holdings from the perspective of Hawaiian Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Hawaiian Holdings using Hawaiian Holdings' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Hawaiian using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Hawaiian Holdings' stock price.

Hawaiian Holdings Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Hawaiian Holdings' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Hawaiian. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Hawaiian Holdings stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Hawaiian Holdings may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Hawaiian Holdings and may potentially protect profits, hedge Hawaiian Holdings with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
10.1715
Short Percent
0.1619
Short Ratio
8.27
Shares Short Prior Month
6.1 M
50 Day MA
13.9456

Hawaiian Holdings Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Hawaiian Holdings' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Hawaiian. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Hawaiian can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Hawaiian Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Hawaiian Holdings' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Hawaiian Holdings.

Hawaiian Holdings Implied Volatility

    
  30.3  
Hawaiian Holdings' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Hawaiian Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Hawaiian Holdings' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Hawaiian Holdings stock will not fluctuate a lot when Hawaiian Holdings' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Hawaiian Holdings. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Hawaiian Holdings to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Hawaiian because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Hawaiian Holdings after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 13.32  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Hawaiian contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Hawaiian Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.89% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Hawaiian Holdings trading at USD 13.32, that is roughly USD 0.25 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Hawaiian Holdings' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Hawaiian Holdings options at the current volatility level of 30.3%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out Hawaiian Holdings Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Hawaiian Stock refer to our How to Trade Hawaiian Stock guide.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hawaiian Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
9.0010.0814.65
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
11.8712.9614.04
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
5.926.507.22
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-2.84-2.62-2.1
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Hawaiian Holdings. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Hawaiian Holdings' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Hawaiian Holdings' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Hawaiian Holdings.

Hawaiian Holdings After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Hawaiian Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Hawaiian Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Hawaiian Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Hawaiian Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Hawaiian Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Hawaiian Holdings' historical news coverage. Hawaiian Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 12.24 and 14.40, respectively. We have considered Hawaiian Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
13.32
13.32
After-hype Price
14.40
Upside
Hawaiian Holdings is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Hawaiian Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.

Hawaiian Holdings Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Hawaiian Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Hawaiian Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Hawaiian Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.10 
1.08
 0.00  
  0.27 
5 Events / Month
4 Events / Month
In about 5 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
13.32
13.32
0.00 
2,700  
Notes

Hawaiian Holdings Hype Timeline

As of March 28, 2024 Hawaiian Holdings is listed for 13.32. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.27. Hawaiian is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.1%. %. The volatility of related hype on Hawaiian Holdings is about 40.72%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 13.05. About 75.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company recorded a loss per share of 5.05. Hawaiian Holdings last dividend was issued on the 13th of February 2020. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 5 days.
Check out Hawaiian Holdings Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Hawaiian Stock refer to our How to Trade Hawaiian Stock guide.

Hawaiian Holdings Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Hawaiian Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Hawaiian Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how Hawaiian Holdings rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Hawaiian Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Hawaiian Holdings Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Hawaiian price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Hawaiian using various technical indicators. When you analyze Hawaiian charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Hawaiian Holdings Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Hawaiian Holdings stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Hawaiian Holdings, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Hawaiian Holdings based on analysis of Hawaiian Holdings hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Hawaiian Holdings's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Hawaiian Holdings's related companies.
 2023 2024 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.0077710.007383
Price To Sales Ratio0.270.3

Story Coverage note for Hawaiian Holdings

The number of cover stories for Hawaiian Holdings depends on current market conditions and Hawaiian Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Hawaiian Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Hawaiian Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Hawaiian Holdings Short Properties

Hawaiian Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when Hawaiian Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Hawaiian Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Hawaiian Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Hawaiian Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding51.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments925.7 M
When determining whether Hawaiian Holdings offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Hawaiian Holdings' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Hawaiian Holdings Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Hawaiian Holdings Stock:
Check out Hawaiian Holdings Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Hawaiian Stock refer to our How to Trade Hawaiian Stock guide.
Note that the Hawaiian Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Hawaiian Holdings' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.

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When running Hawaiian Holdings' price analysis, check to measure Hawaiian Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hawaiian Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of Hawaiian Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hawaiian Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hawaiian Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hawaiian Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Hawaiian Holdings' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Hawaiian Holdings. If investors know Hawaiian will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Hawaiian Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.08)
Earnings Share
(5.05)
Revenue Per Share
52.645
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.09)
Return On Assets
(0.05)
The market value of Hawaiian Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Hawaiian that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Hawaiian Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Hawaiian Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Hawaiian Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Hawaiian Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Hawaiian Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Hawaiian Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Hawaiian Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.