Five Star Bancorp Stock Price Prediction

FSBC Stock  USD 22.50  1.30  5.46%   
At the present time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Five Star's share price is approaching 37. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Five Star, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

37

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Five Star Bancorp stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Five Star shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Five Star's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Five Star and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Five Star's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Five Star Bancorp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Five Star's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.18)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.56
EPS Estimate Current Year
2.24
EPS Estimate Next Year
2.67
Wall Street Target Price
28.67
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Five Star based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Five stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Five Star over a specific investment horizon. Using Five Star hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Five Star Bancorp from the perspective of Five Star response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Five Star. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Five Star to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Five because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Five Star after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 22.5  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Five Star Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Five Star's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
21.1223.3825.64
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
20.3722.6324.89
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
23.9626.3329.23
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.520.560.59
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Five Star. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Five Star's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Five Star's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Five Star Bancorp.

Five Star After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Five Star at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Five Star or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Five Star, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Five Star Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Five Star's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Five Star's historical news coverage. Five Star's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 20.24 and 24.76, respectively. We have considered Five Star's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
22.50
22.50
After-hype Price
24.76
Upside
Five Star is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Five Star Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.

Five Star Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Five Star is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Five Star backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Five Star, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.24 
2.26
  0.19 
  0.09 
8 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
22.50
22.50
0.00 
279.01  
Notes

Five Star Hype Timeline

Five Star Bancorp is currently traded for 22.50. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.19, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.09. Five is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.24%. %. The volatility of related hype on Five Star is about 620.39%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 22.59. About 34.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.45. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Five Star Bancorp last dividend was issued on the 2nd of February 2024. The entity had 2521:2500 split on the 14th of July 2016. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days.
Check out Five Star Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Five Star Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Five Star's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Five Star's future price movements. Getting to know how Five Star rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Five Star may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Five Star Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Five price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Five using various technical indicators. When you analyze Five charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Five Star Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Five Star stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Five Star Bancorp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Five Star based on analysis of Five Star hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Five Star's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Five Star's related companies.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Price To Sales Ratio5.364.2859.8462.83
Price Earnings Ratio10.5810.419.428.94

Story Coverage note for Five Star

The number of cover stories for Five Star depends on current market conditions and Five Star's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Five Star is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Five Star's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Five Star Short Properties

Five Star's future price predictability will typically decrease when Five Star's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Five Star Bancorp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Five Star's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Five Star's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding17.2 M
Cash And Short Term Investments113.5 M
When determining whether Five Star Bancorp offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Five Star's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Five Star Bancorp Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Five Star Bancorp Stock:
Check out Five Star Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Five Star Bancorp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Five Star's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Commodity Channel module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.

Complementary Tools for Five Stock analysis

When running Five Star's price analysis, check to measure Five Star's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Five Star is operating at the current time. Most of Five Star's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Five Star's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Five Star's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Five Star to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Five Star's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Five Star. If investors know Five will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Five Star listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.18)
Dividend Share
0.8
Earnings Share
2.78
Revenue Per Share
6.664
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.06)
The market value of Five Star Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Five that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Five Star's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Five Star's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Five Star's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Five Star's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Five Star's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Five Star is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Five Star's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.