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Freshpet Price Prediction and Hype Density Breakdown

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FRPT -- USA Stock  

Earning Report: February 25, 2020  

Freshpet EBITDA Margin is comparatively stable at the moment as compared to the last year. Freshpet reported EBITDA Margin of 0.05 in 2019. Enterprise Value over EBITDA is likely to grow to 156.05 in 2020, whereas Accounts Payable Turnover is likely to drop 17.16 in 2020. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Freshpet which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Using Freshpet hype-based prediction you can estimate the value of Freshpet from the prospective of Freshpet response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. The module also provides analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Freshpet over a specific investment horizon. Please check Freshpet Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Freshpet After-Hype Price Density Analysis

 Next price density 
    
  Expected price to next headline 

Freshpet Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

Current Value
76.82
February 20, 2020
77.24
After-hype Price
82.46
Upside
Freshpet is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Freshpet is based on 3 months time horizon.

Freshpet Next Price Analysis

Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.62  1.74  0.42   0.11  8 Events / Month6 Events / MonthIn about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
76.8277.240.55 
259.70  

Freshpet Hype Timeline

Freshpet is currently traded for76.82. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.42 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.11. Freshpet is projected to increase in value after the next headline with price going to jump to 77.24. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 259.7%. The price appreciation on the next news is anticipated to be 0.55% where as daily expected return is currently at 0.62%. The volatility of related hype on Freshpet is about 1023.53% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 76.93. The company reported previous year revenue of 231.75 M. Net Loss for the year was (4.26 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 89.99 M. Given the investment horizon of 30 days, the next projected press release will be in about 8 days.
Please check Freshpet Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Freshpet Related Hype Analysis

Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
Kellogg Company(0.64) 10 per month 1.78 (0.0291)  1.45 (1.27)  11.29 
Lamb Weston Holdings 0.66 8 per month 0.58  0.08  1.36 (0.88)  14.32 
DAVIDsTEA 0.13 2 per month 0.00 (0.10)  4.73 (5.00)  17.75 
Farmmi Inc Ordinary Shares 0.00 3 per month 0.00 (0.16)  8.16 (9.80)  25.10 
Farmer Brothers Company(0.04) 7 per month 2.65 (0.0163)  4.58 (4.71)  16.50 
BG Foods BG Foods 0.26 9 per month 0.00 (0.17)  2.47 (3.73)  9.28 
ConAgra Brands(0.24) 9 per month 1.95  0.0066  2.76 (3.10)  22.02 
Campbell Soup Company 0.39 10 per month 1.01 (0.07)  1.61 (1.74)  4.59 
Darling Ingredients 0.51 8 per month 1.07  0.15  2.35 (1.53)  12.90 
Freshpet 0.67 8 per month 0.90  0.24  3.92 (1.72)  9.10 

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Latest Prospective on Freshpet

Please check Freshpet Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
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