Cenovus Energy Stock Price Prediction
| CVE Stock | USD 21.23 0.04 0.19% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
90
Oversold | Overbought |
Cenovus Energy stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Cenovus Energy shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Cenovus Energy's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Cenovus Energy and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Cenovus Energy's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Cenovus Energy, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Cenovus Energy's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.03) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.39 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.94 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.19 | Wall Street Target Price 23.36 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Cenovus Energy based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Cenovus stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Cenovus Energy over a specific investment horizon. Using Cenovus Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Cenovus Energy from the perspective of Cenovus Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Cenovus Energy using Cenovus Energy's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Cenovus using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Cenovus Energy's stock price.
Cenovus Energy Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Cenovus Energy's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Cenovus. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Cenovus Energy stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Cenovus Energy may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Cenovus Energy and may potentially protect profits, hedge Cenovus Energy with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 18.433 | Short Percent 0.0075 | Short Ratio 2.41 | Shares Short Prior Month 34.6 M | 50 Day MA 19.0672 |
Cenovus Energy Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Cenovus Energy's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Cenovus. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Cenovus can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Cenovus Energy. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Cenovus Energy's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Cenovus Energy.
Cenovus Energy Implied Volatility | 37.07 |
Cenovus Energy's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Cenovus Energy stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Cenovus Energy's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Cenovus Energy stock will not fluctuate a lot when Cenovus Energy's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Cenovus Energy. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Cenovus Energy to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Cenovus because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Cenovus Energy after-hype prediction price | USD 20.86 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Cenovus contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Cenovus Energy will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.32% per day over the life of the 2024-04-26 option contract. With Cenovus Energy trading at USD 21.23, that is roughly USD 0.49 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Cenovus Energy's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Cenovus Energy options at the current volatility level of 37.07%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Cenovus |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cenovus Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Cenovus Energy After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Cenovus Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Cenovus Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Cenovus Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Cenovus Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Cenovus Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Cenovus Energy's historical news coverage. Cenovus Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 19.31 and 22.41, respectively. We have considered Cenovus Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Cenovus Energy is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Cenovus Energy is based on 3 months time horizon.
Cenovus Energy Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Cenovus Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Cenovus Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Cenovus Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.46 | 1.55 | 0.35 | 0.10 | 11 Events / Month | 10 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
21.23 | 20.86 | 1.74 |
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Cenovus Energy Hype Timeline
On the 25th of April Cenovus Energy is traded for 21.23. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.35, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.1. Cenovus is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 20.86. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -1.74%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.46%. The volatility of related hype on Cenovus Energy is about 685.37%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 21.13. About 31.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.9. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Cenovus Energy has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.45. The entity last dividend was issued on the 14th of March 2024. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Cenovus Energy Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Cenovus Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Cenovus Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Cenovus Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how Cenovus Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Cenovus Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| IMO | Imperial Oil | (0.86) | 10 per month | 1.07 | 0.19 | 2.56 | (1.93) | 6.80 | |
| XOM | Exxon Mobil Corp | (0.87) | 9 per month | 0.45 | 0.26 | 1.96 | (1.17) | 4.66 | |
| CVX | Chevron Corp | (1.02) | 9 per month | 0.74 | 0.12 | 1.99 | (1.79) | 5.97 | |
| BP | BP PLC ADR | 0.07 | 11 per month | 0.60 | 0.13 | 1.83 | (1.30) | 8.10 | |
| SU | Suncor Energy | 0.52 | 12 per month | 0.87 | 0.19 | 2.45 | (2.00) | 7.42 | |
| E | Eni SpA ADR | (0.76) | 10 per month | 1.15 | 0.02 | 1.74 | (1.62) | 5.48 | |
| TTE | TotalEnergies SE ADR | 0.29 | 12 per month | 0.90 | 0.11 | 1.81 | (1.65) | 4.92 | |
| EQNR | Equinor ASA ADR | 0.16 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 1.87 | (2.65) | 9.62 | |
| PBR-A | Petrleo Brasileiro SA | 0.29 | 12 per month | 2.46 | 0.01 | 3.01 | (2.20) | 15.60 | |
| PBR | Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras | 0.18 | 9 per month | 2.35 | 0.02 | 2.85 | (2.01) | 16.41 | |
| YPF | YPF Sociedad Anonima | 0.20 | 10 per month | 1.86 | 0.14 | 5.66 | (3.66) | 11.18 | |
| EC | Ecopetrol SA ADR | (0.74) | 9 per month | 1.69 | 0.01 | 2.49 | (2.56) | 7.91 | |
| SHEL | Shell PLC ADR | (0.40) | 10 per month | 0.27 | 0.23 | 1.68 | (1.21) | 3.93 |
Cenovus Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Cenovus price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Cenovus using various technical indicators. When you analyze Cenovus charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Cenovus Energy Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Cenovus Energy stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Cenovus Energy, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Cenovus Energy based on analysis of Cenovus Energy hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Cenovus Energy's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Cenovus Energy's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.006655 | 0.0181 | 0.0246 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.65 | 0.71 | 0.8 |
Story Coverage note for Cenovus Energy
The number of cover stories for Cenovus Energy depends on current market conditions and Cenovus Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Cenovus Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Cenovus Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Cenovus Energy Short Properties
Cenovus Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when Cenovus Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Cenovus Energy often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Cenovus Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cenovus Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.9 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.2 B |
Check out Cenovus Energy Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Cenovus Stock refer to our How to Trade Cenovus Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.
Complementary Tools for Cenovus Stock analysis
When running Cenovus Energy's price analysis, check to measure Cenovus Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cenovus Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Cenovus Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cenovus Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cenovus Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cenovus Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Cenovus Energy's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Cenovus Energy. If investors know Cenovus will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Cenovus Energy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.03) | Dividend Share 0.525 | Earnings Share 1.54 | Revenue Per Share 27.541 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.07) |
The market value of Cenovus Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Cenovus that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Cenovus Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Cenovus Energy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Cenovus Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Cenovus Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Cenovus Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Cenovus Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Cenovus Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.