Cisco Systems Stock Price Prediction
| CSCO Stock | USD 48.11 0.32 0.67% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
37
Oversold | Overbought |
Cisco Systems stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Cisco Systems shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Cisco Systems' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Cisco Systems and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Cisco Systems' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Cisco Systems, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Cisco Systems' stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.03) | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.47 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.54 | Wall Street Target Price 50.86 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.84 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Cisco Systems based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Cisco stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Cisco Systems over a specific investment horizon. Using Cisco Systems hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Cisco Systems from the perspective of Cisco Systems response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Cisco Systems using Cisco Systems' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Cisco using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Cisco Systems' stock price.
Cisco Systems Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Cisco Systems' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Cisco. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Cisco Systems stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Cisco Systems may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Cisco Systems and may potentially protect profits, hedge Cisco Systems with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 51.4596 | Short Percent 0.0115 | Short Ratio 2.29 | Shares Short Prior Month 44.3 M | 50 Day MA 49.1326 |
Cisco Systems Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Cisco Systems' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Cisco. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Cisco can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Cisco Systems. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Cisco Systems' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Cisco Systems.
Cisco Systems Implied Volatility | 80.45 |
Cisco Systems' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Cisco Systems stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Cisco Systems' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Cisco Systems stock will not fluctuate a lot when Cisco Systems' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Cisco Systems. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Cisco Systems to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Cisco because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Cisco Systems after-hype prediction price | USD 48.05 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Cisco contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Cisco Systems will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 5.03% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Cisco Systems trading at USD 48.11, that is roughly USD 2.42 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Cisco Systems' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Cisco Systems options at the current volatility level of 80.45%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Cisco |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cisco Systems' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Cisco Systems After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Cisco Systems at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Cisco Systems or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Cisco Systems, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Cisco Systems Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Cisco Systems' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Cisco Systems' historical news coverage. Cisco Systems' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 46.94 and 49.16, respectively. We have considered Cisco Systems' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Cisco Systems is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Cisco Systems is based on 3 months time horizon.
Cisco Systems Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Cisco Systems is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Cisco Systems backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Cisco Systems, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 1.11 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 7 Events / Month | 9 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
48.11 | 48.05 | 0.12 |
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Cisco Systems Hype Timeline
Cisco Systems is currently traded for 48.11. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Cisco is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 48.05. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 154.17%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.12%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.09%. The volatility of related hype on Cisco Systems is about 446.98%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 48.09. About 78.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Cisco Systems was currently reported as 11.42. The company last dividend was issued on the 3rd of April 2024. Cisco Systems had 2:1 split on the 23rd of March 2000. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Cisco Systems Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Cisco Systems Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Cisco Systems' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Cisco Systems' future price movements. Getting to know how Cisco Systems' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Cisco Systems may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| JNPR | Juniper Networks | 0.11 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.26) | 0.65 | (0.71) | 2.11 | |
| NOK | Nokia Corp ADR | (0.04) | 9 per month | 1.89 | (0.03) | 3.60 | (2.63) | 17.23 | |
| MSI | Motorola Solutions | (2.64) | 10 per month | 0.90 | 0.04 | 1.70 | (1.52) | 5.03 | |
| CIEN | Ciena Corp | 0.02 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.73 | (3.18) | 21.49 | |
| ERIC | Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson | (0.03) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.21 | (3.83) | 10.56 | |
| HPE | Hewlett Packard Enterprise | (0.19) | 10 per month | 1.47 | 0.06 | 2.77 | (2.90) | 14.79 | |
| LITE | Lumentum Holdings | (1.96) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 4.39 | (4.04) | 28.25 | |
| EXTR | Extreme Networks | (0.21) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 2.93 | (4.69) | 20.75 | |
| NTGR | NETGEAR | 0.25 | 9 per month | 2.47 | (0) | 3.88 | (3.62) | 14.57 | |
| INFN | Infinera | (0.1) | 9 per month | 4.64 | (0.01) | 6.99 | (6.21) | 19.13 | |
| CLFD | Clearfield | (0.70) | 8 per month | 2.57 | 0.03 | 5.46 | (3.64) | 20.39 | |
| ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | 2.51 | 11 per month | 1.78 | 0.05 | 3.24 | (2.64) | 15.09 |
Cisco Systems Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Cisco price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Cisco using various technical indicators. When you analyze Cisco charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Cisco Systems Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Cisco Systems stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Cisco Systems, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Cisco Systems based on analysis of Cisco Systems hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Cisco Systems's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Cisco Systems's related companies. | 2015 | 2020 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0306 | 0.0296 | 0.0264 | 0.0214 | Price To Sales Ratio | 3.99 | 3.74 | 4.69 | 6.49 |
Story Coverage note for Cisco Systems
The number of cover stories for Cisco Systems depends on current market conditions and Cisco Systems' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Cisco Systems is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Cisco Systems' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Cisco Systems Short Properties
Cisco Systems' future price predictability will typically decrease when Cisco Systems' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Cisco Systems often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Cisco Systems' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cisco Systems' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 4.1 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 26.1 B |
Check out Cisco Systems Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Cisco Stock, please use our How to Invest in Cisco Systems guide.Note that the Cisco Systems information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Cisco Systems' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Sign In To Macroaxis module to sign in to explore Macroaxis' wealth optimization platform and fintech modules.
Complementary Tools for Cisco Stock analysis
When running Cisco Systems' price analysis, check to measure Cisco Systems' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cisco Systems is operating at the current time. Most of Cisco Systems' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cisco Systems' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cisco Systems' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cisco Systems to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Cisco Systems' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Cisco Systems. If investors know Cisco will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Cisco Systems listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.03) | Dividend Share 1.56 | Earnings Share 3.29 | Revenue Per Share 14.067 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.06) |
The market value of Cisco Systems is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Cisco that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Cisco Systems' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Cisco Systems' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Cisco Systems' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Cisco Systems' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Cisco Systems' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Cisco Systems is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Cisco Systems' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.