Carlyle Group Stock Price Prediction
| CG Stock | USD 43.68 0.95 2.13% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
59
Oversold | Overbought |
Carlyle Group stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Carlyle shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Carlyle's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Carlyle and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Carlyle's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Carlyle Group, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Carlyle's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.71) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.91 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.61 | Wall Street Target Price 52.77 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Carlyle based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Carlyle stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Carlyle over a specific investment horizon. Using Carlyle hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Carlyle Group from the perspective of Carlyle response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Carlyle using Carlyle's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Carlyle using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Carlyle's stock price.
Carlyle Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Carlyle's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Carlyle. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Carlyle stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Carlyle may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Carlyle and may potentially protect profits, hedge Carlyle with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 36.7232 | Short Percent 0.074 | Short Ratio 6.59 | Shares Short Prior Month 16.4 M | 50 Day MA 45.7172 |
Carlyle Group Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Carlyle's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Carlyle. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Carlyle can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Carlyle Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Carlyle's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Carlyle.
Carlyle Implied Volatility | 91.02 |
Carlyle's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Carlyle Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Carlyle's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Carlyle stock will not fluctuate a lot when Carlyle's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Carlyle. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Carlyle to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Carlyle because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Carlyle after-hype prediction price | USD 43.65 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Carlyle |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Carlyle's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Carlyle After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Carlyle at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Carlyle or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Carlyle, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Carlyle Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Carlyle's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Carlyle's historical news coverage. Carlyle's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 41.80 and 45.50, respectively. We have considered Carlyle's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Carlyle is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Carlyle Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
Carlyle Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Carlyle is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Carlyle backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Carlyle, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.17 | 1.85 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 12 Events / Month | 11 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
43.68 | 43.65 | 0.07 |
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Carlyle Hype Timeline
As of April 19, 2024 Carlyle Group is listed for 43.68. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.07. Carlyle is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 43.65. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -0.07%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.17%. The volatility of related hype on Carlyle is about 447.86%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 43.61. About 32.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of Carlyle was currently reported as 14.37. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.42. Carlyle Group recorded a loss per share of 1.68. The entity last dividend was issued on the 22nd of February 2024. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Carlyle Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Carlyle Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Carlyle's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Carlyle's future price movements. Getting to know how Carlyle's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Carlyle may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| APO | Apollo Global Management | (1.20) | 9 per month | 1.28 | 0.08 | 2.46 | (2.32) | 6.84 | |
| BX | Blackstone Group | 0.37 | 9 per month | 1.90 | (0.01) | 2.40 | (2.89) | 7.54 | |
| BAM | Brookfield Asset Management | (0.06) | 9 per month | 1.39 | (0.03) | 2.41 | (2.13) | 6.82 | |
| ARES | Ares Management LP | (1.45) | 9 per month | 0.88 | 0.09 | 2.31 | (1.56) | 7.23 | |
| KKR | KKR Co LP | 1.87 | 8 per month | 1.17 | 0.09 | 2.97 | (2.04) | 8.94 | |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital | (0.26) | 8 per month | 0.92 | 0.17 | 3.73 | (1.88) | 9.12 | |
| HLNE | Hamilton Lane | (1.18) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.64 | (3.23) | 9.19 | |
| BLK | BlackRock | (2.33) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 1.82 | (2.52) | 5.83 | |
| TCPC | BlackRock TCP Capital | (0.36) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 1.30 | (1.75) | 5.47 | |
| TPVG | Triplepoint Venture Growth | (0.24) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.33 | (2.29) | 16.20 | |
| TSLX | Sixth Street Specialty | (0.21) | 9 per month | 1.00 | (0.06) | 1.17 | (1.26) | 5.34 | |
| GBDC | Golub Capital BDC | 0.01 | 7 per month | 0.67 | 0.14 | 1.65 | (1.32) | 3.16 | |
| NMFC | New Mountain Finance | (0.33) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 1.12 | (1.19) | 3.86 |
Carlyle Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Carlyle price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Carlyle using various technical indicators. When you analyze Carlyle charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Carlyle Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Carlyle stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Carlyle Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Carlyle based on analysis of Carlyle hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Carlyle's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Carlyle's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0182 | 0.0411 | 0.0338 | 0.0322 | Price To Sales Ratio | 3.53 | 3.21 | 5.56 | 5.84 |
Story Coverage note for Carlyle
The number of cover stories for Carlyle depends on current market conditions and Carlyle's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Carlyle is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Carlyle's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Carlyle Short Properties
Carlyle's future price predictability will typically decrease when Carlyle's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Carlyle Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Carlyle's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Carlyle's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 361.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.8 B |
Check out Carlyle Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Carlyle Group information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Carlyle's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Economic Indicators module to top statistical indicators that provide insights into how an economy is performing.
Complementary Tools for Carlyle Stock analysis
When running Carlyle's price analysis, check to measure Carlyle's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Carlyle is operating at the current time. Most of Carlyle's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Carlyle's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Carlyle's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Carlyle to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Volatility Analysis Get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data | |
| Portfolio Holdings Check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing | |
| Headlines Timeline Stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity | |
| ETFs Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world | |
| Balance Of Power Check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios | |
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Is Carlyle's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Carlyle. If investors know Carlyle will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Carlyle listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.71) | Dividend Share 1.4 | Earnings Share (1.68) | Revenue Per Share 6.699 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.255 |
The market value of Carlyle Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Carlyle that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Carlyle's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Carlyle's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Carlyle's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Carlyle's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Carlyle's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Carlyle is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Carlyle's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.