Alibaba Group Price Prediction and Hype Density Breakdown

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We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Alibaba Group Holding Limited which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. With Alibaba Group hype-based prediction module you can estimate the value of Alibaba Group Holding Limited from the prospective of Alibaba Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. The module also provides analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Alibaba Group over a specific investment horizon. Continue to Alibaba Group Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

Alibaba Group After-Hype Price Density Analysis

 Next price density 
    
  Expected price to next headline 

Alibaba Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

Current Value
227.43
January 17, 2020
221.82
Downside
225.81
After-hype Price
229.80
Upside
Alibaba Group is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alibaba Group Holding is based on 3 months time horizon.

Alibaba Group Next Price Analysis

Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.45  1.33  0.38   0.69  11 Events / Month7 Events / MonthIn about 11 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
227.43225.810.16 
156.47  

Alibaba Group Hype Timeline

Alibaba Group Holding is currently traded for227.43. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.38 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.69. Alibaba Group Holding Limited is projected to decline in value after the next headline with price expected to drop to 225.81. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 156.47%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.16% where as daily expected return is currently at 0.45%. The volatility of related hype on Alibaba Group is about 86.59% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 226.74. About 34.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 30 days, the next projected press release will be in about 11 days.
Continue to Alibaba Group Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Alibaba Group Related Hype Analysis

Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
JD Com 0.24 9 per month 0.96  0.18  3.68 (2.34)  7.52 
EBay(0.32) 12 per month 0.00 (0.18)  1.36 (1.70)  10.49 
Etsy 0.47 10 per month 0.00 (0.13)  3.19 (3.38)  18.93 
JMU Limited 0.05 8 per month 4.65  0.005  12.04 (7.89)  28.04 
MEDIFAST INC(0.11) 8 per month 5.43  0.06  5.85 (4.18)  31.01 
Imedia Brands 0.02 9 per month 3.36  0.11  7.55 (7.69)  829.18 
Jumei International Holding Lim 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.0454)  8.81 (5.70)  18.94 
LightInTheBox Holding Co Ltd(0.0489) 7 per month 4.33 (0.014)  7.14 (8.73)  20.91 
Liquidity Services(0.28) 7 per month 0.00 (0.13)  3.07 (4.26)  10.86 
MercadoLibre(15.38) 10 per month 2.12  0.08  3.45 (3.11)  12.34 

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Continue to Alibaba Group Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Coins and Tokens Correlation module to utilize digital token correlation table to build portfolio of cryptocurrencies across multiple exchanges.
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