Armstrong World Industries Stock Price Prediction

AWI Stock  USD 124.47  1.08  0.88%   
The relative strength index (RSI) of Armstrong World's the stock price is under 68. This suggests that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of 28th of March 2024. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Armstrong, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

68

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Armstrong World Indu stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Armstrong World shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Armstrong World's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Armstrong World and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Armstrong World's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Armstrong World Industries, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Armstrong World's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.01)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
1.18
EPS Estimate Current Year
5.76
EPS Estimate Next Year
6.46
Wall Street Target Price
118
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Armstrong World based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Armstrong stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Armstrong World over a specific investment horizon. Using Armstrong World hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Armstrong World Industries from the perspective of Armstrong World response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Armstrong World using Armstrong World's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Armstrong using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Armstrong World's stock price.

Armstrong World Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Armstrong World's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Armstrong. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Armstrong World stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Armstrong World may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Armstrong World and may potentially protect profits, hedge Armstrong World with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
87.2639
Short Percent
0.033
Short Ratio
3.03
Shares Short Prior Month
1.4 M
50 Day MA
111.9986

Armstrong World Indu Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Armstrong World's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Armstrong. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Armstrong can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Armstrong World Industries. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Armstrong World's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Armstrong World.

Armstrong World Implied Volatility

    
  0.0  
Armstrong World's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Armstrong World Industries stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Armstrong World's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Armstrong World stock will not fluctuate a lot when Armstrong World's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Armstrong World. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Armstrong World to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Armstrong because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Armstrong World after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 124.68  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Armstrong contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Armstrong World Industries will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Armstrong World trading at USD 124.47, that is roughly USD 0.0 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Armstrong World's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Armstrong World Industries options at the current volatility level of 0.0%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out Armstrong World Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Armstrong World's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
109.94111.81136.92
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
124.79126.65128.52
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
77.5585.2294.59
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.151.231.30
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Armstrong World. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Armstrong World's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Armstrong World's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Armstrong World Indu.

Armstrong World After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Armstrong World at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Armstrong World or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Armstrong World, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Armstrong World Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Armstrong World's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Armstrong World's historical news coverage. Armstrong World's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 122.81 and 126.55, respectively. We have considered Armstrong World's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
124.47
122.81
Downside
124.68
After-hype Price
126.55
Upside
Armstrong World is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Armstrong World Indu is based on 3 months time horizon.

Armstrong World Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Armstrong World is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Armstrong World backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Armstrong World, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.41 
1.86
  0.23 
  0.41 
11 Events / Month
4 Events / Month
In about 11 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
124.47
124.68
0.17 
332.14  
Notes

Armstrong World Hype Timeline

On the 28th of March Armstrong World Indu is traded for 124.47. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.23, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.41. Armstrong is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 124.68 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.17%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.41%. The volatility of related hype on Armstrong World is about 187.56%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 124.88. The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.3 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 223.7 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 449.1 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 11 days.
Check out Armstrong World Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Armstrong World Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Armstrong World's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Armstrong World's future price movements. Getting to know how Armstrong World rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Armstrong World may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Armstrong World Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Armstrong price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Armstrong using various technical indicators. When you analyze Armstrong charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Armstrong World Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Armstrong World stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Armstrong World Industries, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Armstrong World based on analysis of Armstrong World hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Armstrong World's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Armstrong World's related companies.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.007490.01390.01070.0101
Price To Sales Ratio4.992.583.393.56

Story Coverage note for Armstrong World

The number of cover stories for Armstrong World depends on current market conditions and Armstrong World's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Armstrong World is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Armstrong World's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Armstrong World Short Properties

Armstrong World's future price predictability will typically decrease when Armstrong World's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Armstrong World Industries often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Armstrong World's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Armstrong World's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding44.8 M
Cash And Short Term Investments70.8 M
When determining whether Armstrong World Indu offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Armstrong World's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Armstrong World Industries Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Armstrong World Industries Stock:
Check out Armstrong World Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.

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When running Armstrong World's price analysis, check to measure Armstrong World's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Armstrong World is operating at the current time. Most of Armstrong World's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Armstrong World's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Armstrong World's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Armstrong World to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Armstrong World's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Armstrong World. If investors know Armstrong will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Armstrong World listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.01)
Dividend Share
1.068
Earnings Share
4.98
Revenue Per Share
28.975
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.026
The market value of Armstrong World Indu is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Armstrong that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Armstrong World's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Armstrong World's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Armstrong World's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Armstrong World's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Armstrong World's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Armstrong World is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Armstrong World's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.