Align Technology Stock Price Prediction

ALGN Stock  USD 327.90  7.96  2.49%   
The relative strength index (RSI) of Align Technology's the stock price is about 62. This suggests that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Align, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

62

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Align Technology stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Align Technology shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Align Technology's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Align Technology and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Align Technology's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Align Technology, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Align Technology's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
2.06
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
2.1
EPS Estimate Current Year
9.26
EPS Estimate Next Year
10.5
Wall Street Target Price
308.81
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Align Technology based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Align stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Align Technology over a specific investment horizon. Using Align Technology hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Align Technology from the perspective of Align Technology response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Align Technology using Align Technology's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Align using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Align Technology's stock price.

Align Technology Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Align Technology's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Align. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Align Technology stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Align Technology may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Align Technology and may potentially protect profits, hedge Align Technology with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
294.5329
Short Percent
0.025
Short Ratio
1.57
Shares Short Prior Month
1.7 M
50 Day MA
296.2668

Align Technology Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Align Technology's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Align. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Align can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Align Technology. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Align Technology's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Align Technology.

Align Technology Implied Volatility

    
  81.76  
Align Technology's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Align Technology stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Align Technology's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Align Technology stock will not fluctuate a lot when Align Technology's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Align Technology. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Align Technology to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Align because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Align Technology after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 328.24  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Align contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Align Technology will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 5.11% per day over the life of the 2024-03-28 option contract. With Align Technology trading at USD 327.9, that is roughly USD 16.76 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Align Technology's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Align Technology options at the current volatility level of 81.76%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out Align Technology Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Align Stock, please use our How to Invest in Align Technology guide.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Align Technology's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
288.24290.38360.69
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
338.43340.57342.71
Details
17 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
246.05270.38300.12
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.881.962.02
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Align Technology. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Align Technology's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Align Technology's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Align Technology.

Align Technology After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Align Technology at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Align Technology or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Align Technology, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Align Technology Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Align Technology's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Align Technology's historical news coverage. Align Technology's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 326.10 and 330.38, respectively. We have considered Align Technology's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
327.90
326.10
Downside
328.24
After-hype Price
330.38
Upside
Align Technology is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Align Technology is based on 3 months time horizon.

Align Technology Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Align Technology is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Align Technology backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Align Technology, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.32 
2.14
  0.34 
  0.09 
9 Events / Month
4 Events / Month
In about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
327.90
328.24
0.10 
201.89  
Notes

Align Technology Hype Timeline

Align Technology is presently traded for 327.90. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.34, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.09. Align is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 328.24 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.1%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.32%. The volatility of related hype on Align Technology is about 753.52%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 327.99. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 3.86 B. Net Income was 445.05 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.64 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days.
Check out Align Technology Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Align Stock, please use our How to Invest in Align Technology guide.

Align Technology Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Align Technology's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Align Technology's future price movements. Getting to know how Align Technology rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Align Technology may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Align Technology Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Align price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Align using various technical indicators. When you analyze Align charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Align Technology Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Align Technology stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Align Technology, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Align Technology based on analysis of Align Technology hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Align Technology's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Align Technology's related companies.
 2023 2024 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.130.14
Price To Sales Ratio5.425.15

Story Coverage note for Align Technology

The number of cover stories for Align Technology depends on current market conditions and Align Technology's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Align Technology is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Align Technology's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Align Technology Short Properties

Align Technology's future price predictability will typically decrease when Align Technology's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Align Technology often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Align Technology's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Align Technology's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding76.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments972.7 M
When determining whether Align Technology offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Align Technology's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Align Technology Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Align Technology Stock:
Check out Align Technology Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Align Stock, please use our How to Invest in Align Technology guide.
Note that the Align Technology information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Align Technology's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..

Complementary Tools for Align Stock analysis

When running Align Technology's price analysis, check to measure Align Technology's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Align Technology is operating at the current time. Most of Align Technology's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Align Technology's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Align Technology's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Align Technology to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Align Technology's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Align Technology. If investors know Align will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Align Technology listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
2.06
Earnings Share
5.82
Revenue Per Share
50.536
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.061
Return On Assets
0.0682
The market value of Align Technology is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Align that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Align Technology's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Align Technology's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Align Technology's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Align Technology's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Align Technology's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Align Technology is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Align Technology's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.