Air Lease Stock Price Prediction

AL Stock  USD 51.44  0.68  1.34%   
The relative strength index (RSI) of Air Lease's share price is above 70 as of now. This suggests that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Air, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

75

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Air Lease stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Air Lease shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Air Lease's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Air Lease and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Air Lease's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Air Lease, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Air Lease's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.556
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
1.05
EPS Estimate Current Year
4.67
EPS Estimate Next Year
5.6
Wall Street Target Price
54
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Air Lease based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Air stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Air Lease over a specific investment horizon. Using Air Lease hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Air Lease from the perspective of Air Lease response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Air Lease using Air Lease's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Air using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Air Lease's stock price.

Air Lease Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Air Lease's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Air. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Air Lease stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Air Lease may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Air Lease and may potentially protect profits, hedge Air Lease with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
40.5583
Short Percent
0.0283
Short Ratio
1.14
Shares Short Prior Month
1.6 M
50 Day MA
43.093

Air Lease Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Air Lease's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Air. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Air can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Air Lease. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Air Lease's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Air Lease.

Air Lease Implied Volatility

    
  28.72  
Air Lease's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Air Lease stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Air Lease's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Air Lease stock will not fluctuate a lot when Air Lease's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Air Lease. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Air Lease to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Air because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Air Lease after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 51.44  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Air Lease Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Air Stock please use our How to buy in Air Stock guide.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Air Lease's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
50.5452.2653.98
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
48.4850.2051.91
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
48.3853.1759.02
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.901.001.31
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Air Lease. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Air Lease's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Air Lease's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Air Lease.

Air Lease After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Air Lease at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Air Lease or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Air Lease, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Air Lease Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Air Lease's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Air Lease's historical news coverage. Air Lease's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 49.72 and 53.16, respectively. We have considered Air Lease's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
51.44
51.44
After-hype Price
53.16
Upside
Air Lease is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Air Lease is based on 3 months time horizon.

Air Lease Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Air Lease is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Air Lease backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Air Lease, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.39 
1.71
  0.14 
  0.09 
12 Events / Month
2 Events / Month
In about 12 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
51.44
51.44
0.00 
462.16  
Notes

Air Lease Hype Timeline

As of March 29, 2024 Air Lease is listed for 51.44. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.14, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.09. Air is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.39%. %. The volatility of related hype on Air Lease is about 743.48%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 51.53. About 89.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.79. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Air Lease has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.91. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.14. The firm last dividend was issued on the 14th of March 2024. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 12 days.
Check out Air Lease Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Air Stock please use our How to buy in Air Stock guide.

Air Lease Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Air Lease's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Air Lease's future price movements. Getting to know how Air Lease rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Air Lease may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
RRyder System(0.22)10 per month 1.50 (0.06) 1.93 (1.88) 8.60 
VSTSVestis 0.46 9 per month 0.00 (0.09) 2.74 (2.80) 15.98 
TRTN-PCTriton International Limited 0.00 0 per month 0.58 (0.06) 1.26 (1.09) 4.35 
TRTN-PDTriton International Limited 0.00 0 per month 1.05 (0.03) 1.68 (1.74) 4.83 
TRTN-PETriton International Limited 0.00 0 per month 1.32 (0.05) 2.49 (2.52) 7.52 
TRTN-PATriton International Limited 0.00 0 per month 0.23 (0.28) 0.71 (0.47) 1.70 
TRTN-PBTriton International Limited 0.00 0 per month 0.45 (0.22) 0.75 (0.68) 2.21 
WLFCWillis Lease Finance 1.60 9 per month 1.77 (0.03) 3.23 (1.92) 13.20 

Air Lease Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Air price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Air using various technical indicators. When you analyze Air charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Air Lease Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Air Lease stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Air Lease, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Air Lease based on analysis of Air Lease hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Air Lease's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Air Lease's related companies.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.02010.02910.0280.0294
Price To Sales Ratio2.421.851.733.26

Story Coverage note for Air Lease

The number of cover stories for Air Lease depends on current market conditions and Air Lease's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Air Lease is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Air Lease's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Air Lease Short Properties

Air Lease's future price predictability will typically decrease when Air Lease's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Air Lease often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Air Lease's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Air Lease's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding111.4 M
Cash And Short Term Investments460.9 M
When determining whether Air Lease is a strong investment it is important to analyze Air Lease's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Air Lease's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Air Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Air Lease Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Air Stock please use our How to buy in Air Stock guide.
You can also try the Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.

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When running Air Lease's price analysis, check to measure Air Lease's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Air Lease is operating at the current time. Most of Air Lease's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Air Lease's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Air Lease's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Air Lease to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Air Lease's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Air Lease. If investors know Air will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Air Lease listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.556
Dividend Share
0.81
Earnings Share
5.14
Revenue Per Share
24.188
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.191
The market value of Air Lease is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Air that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Air Lease's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Air Lease's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Air Lease's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Air Lease's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Air Lease's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Air Lease is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Air Lease's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.