Arthur J Gallagher Stock Price Prediction

AJG Stock  USD 250.04  2.25  0.91%   
The relative strength index (RSI) of Arthur J's share price is above 70 as of 28th of March 2024. This suggests that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Arthur, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

75

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Arthur J Gallagher stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Arthur J shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Arthur J's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Arthur J and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Arthur J's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Arthur J Gallagher, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Arthur J's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.076
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
3.47
EPS Estimate Current Year
10.16
EPS Estimate Next Year
11.34
Wall Street Target Price
258.07
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Arthur J based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Arthur stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Arthur J over a specific investment horizon. Using Arthur J hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Arthur J Gallagher from the perspective of Arthur J response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Arthur J using Arthur J's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Arthur using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Arthur J's stock price.

Arthur J Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Arthur J's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Arthur. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Arthur J stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Arthur J may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Arthur J and may potentially protect profits, hedge Arthur J with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
232.0435
Short Percent
0.0127
Short Ratio
2.57
Shares Short Prior Month
1.8 M
50 Day MA
242.5378

Arthur J Gallagher Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Arthur J's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Arthur. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Arthur can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Arthur J Gallagher. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Arthur J's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Arthur J.

Arthur J Implied Volatility

    
  17.66  
Arthur J's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Arthur J Gallagher stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Arthur J's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Arthur J stock will not fluctuate a lot when Arthur J's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Arthur J. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Arthur J to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Arthur because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Arthur J after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 249.64  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Arthur contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Arthur J Gallagher will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.1% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Arthur J trading at USD 250.04, that is roughly USD 2.76 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Arthur J's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Arthur J Gallagher options at the current volatility level of 17.66%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out Arthur J Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Arthur J's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
224.17225.07274.34
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
241.84242.75243.65
Details
19 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
225.80248.13275.42
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
3.343.433.56
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Arthur J. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Arthur J's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Arthur J's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Arthur J Gallagher.

Arthur J After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Arthur J at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Arthur J or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Arthur J, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Arthur J Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Arthur J's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Arthur J's historical news coverage. Arthur J's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 248.74 and 250.54, respectively. We have considered Arthur J's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
250.04
248.74
Downside
249.64
After-hype Price
250.54
Upside
Arthur J is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Arthur J Gallagher is based on 3 months time horizon.

Arthur J Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Arthur J is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Arthur J backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Arthur J, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.17 
0.90
  0.24 
  0.17 
12 Events / Month
5 Events / Month
In about 12 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
250.04
249.64
0.10 
62.50  
Notes

Arthur J Hype Timeline

On the 28th of March Arthur J Gallagher is traded for 250.04. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.24, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.17. Arthur is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 249.64 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 62.5%. The price rise on the next news is projected to be 0.1%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.17%. The volatility of related hype on Arthur J is about 89.55%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 250.21. The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.7 M. Total Income to common stockholders was 966 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 3.64 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 12 days.
Check out Arthur J Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Arthur J Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Arthur J's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Arthur J's future price movements. Getting to know how Arthur J rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Arthur J may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
GPGreenPower Motor(0.07)10 per month 0.00 (0.23) 4.87 (5.02) 16.54 
FDSFactSet Research Systems 2.05 10 per month 0.00 (0.14) 1.60 (1.92) 9.93 
TSLATesla Inc 3.78 7 per month 0.00 (0.22) 3.87 (4.12) 14.01 
CDNSCadence Design Systems 2.69 9 per month 1.46  0.04  3.63 (2.97) 8.70 
GETYGetty Images Holdings(0.39)9 per month 0.00 (0.11) 6.17 (8.04) 25.51 
LEVLion Electric Corp(0.19)7 per month 0.00 (0.11) 3.95 (4.57) 16.72 
ASURAsure Software 0.17 7 per month 0.00 (0.09) 3.92 (5.04) 19.58 
CSXXYCarsalesCom Ltd ADR 0.00 0 per month 1.79  0.06  4.66 (4.46) 14.14 

Arthur J Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Arthur price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Arthur using various technical indicators. When you analyze Arthur charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Arthur J Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Arthur J stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Arthur J Gallagher, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Arthur J based on analysis of Arthur J hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Arthur J's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Arthur J's related companies.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Price Earnings Ratio37.9335.0949.8552.34
Short Term Coverage Ratios3.63.852.122.01

Story Coverage note for Arthur J

The number of cover stories for Arthur J depends on current market conditions and Arthur J's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Arthur J is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Arthur J's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Arthur J Short Properties

Arthur J's future price predictability will typically decrease when Arthur J's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Arthur J Gallagher often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Arthur J's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Arthur J's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding219.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments971.5 M
When determining whether Arthur J Gallagher is a strong investment it is important to analyze Arthur J's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Arthur J's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Arthur Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Arthur J Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Companies Directory module to evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals.

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When running Arthur J's price analysis, check to measure Arthur J's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Arthur J is operating at the current time. Most of Arthur J's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Arthur J's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Arthur J's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Arthur J to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Arthur J's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Arthur J. If investors know Arthur will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Arthur J listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.076
Dividend Share
2.2
Earnings Share
4.43
Revenue Per Share
44.482
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.18
The market value of Arthur J Gallagher is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Arthur that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Arthur J's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Arthur J's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Arthur J's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Arthur J's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Arthur J's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Arthur J is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Arthur J's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.