Advance Auto Parts Stock Price Prediction

AAP Stock  USD 85.32  1.07  1.27%   
The value of RSI of Advance Auto's share price is above 70 as of today. This suggests that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Advance, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

78

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Advance Auto Parts stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Advance Auto shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Advance Auto's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Advance Auto and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Advance Auto's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Advance Auto Parts, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Advance Auto's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.40)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.64
EPS Estimate Current Year
3.85
EPS Estimate Next Year
4.56
Wall Street Target Price
65.21
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Advance Auto based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Advance stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Advance Auto over a specific investment horizon. Using Advance Auto hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Advance Auto Parts from the perspective of Advance Auto response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Advance Auto using Advance Auto's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Advance using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Advance Auto's stock price.

Advance Auto Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Advance Auto's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Advance. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Advance Auto stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Advance Auto may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Advance Auto and may potentially protect profits, hedge Advance Auto with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
63.6593
Short Percent
0.113
Short Ratio
3.17
Shares Short Prior Month
4.7 M
50 Day MA
69.7558

Advance Auto Parts Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Advance Auto's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Advance. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Advance can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Advance Auto Parts. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Advance Auto's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Advance Auto.

Advance Auto Implied Volatility

    
  60.48  
Advance Auto's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Advance Auto Parts stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Advance Auto's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Advance Auto stock will not fluctuate a lot when Advance Auto's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Advance Auto. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Advance Auto to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Advance because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Advance Auto after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 85.11  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Advance contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Advance Auto Parts will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 3.78% per day over the life of the 2024-03-28 option contract. With Advance Auto trading at USD 85.32, that is roughly USD 3.22 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Advance Auto's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Advance Auto Parts options at the current volatility level of 60.48%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out Advance Auto Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Advance Auto's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
78.9681.0893.85
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
78.0180.1382.25
Details
30 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
62.4468.6176.16
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.180.771.71
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Advance Auto. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Advance Auto's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Advance Auto's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Advance Auto Parts.

Advance Auto After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Advance Auto at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Advance Auto or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Advance Auto, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Advance Auto Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Advance Auto's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Advance Auto's historical news coverage. Advance Auto's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 82.99 and 87.23, respectively. We have considered Advance Auto's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
85.32
85.11
After-hype Price
87.23
Upside
Advance Auto is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Advance Auto Parts is based on 3 months time horizon.

Advance Auto Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Advance Auto is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Advance Auto backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Advance Auto, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.58 
2.12
  0.21 
  0.29 
10 Events / Month
7 Events / Month
In about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
85.32
85.11
0.25 
572.97  
Notes

Advance Auto Hype Timeline

On the 28th of March Advance Auto Parts is traded for 85.32. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.21, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.29. Advance is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 85.11. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.25%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.58%. The volatility of related hype on Advance Auto is about 417.51%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 85.61. About 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.99. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Advance Auto Parts has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.6. The entity last dividend was issued on the 11th of April 2024. The firm had 3:2 split on the 26th of September 2005. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days.
Check out Advance Auto Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Advance Auto Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Advance Auto's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Advance Auto's future price movements. Getting to know how Advance Auto rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Advance Auto may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
MMacys Inc(0.83)11 per month 2.26 (0.04) 3.75 (3.19) 16.61 
WWayfair 0.23 10 per month 3.31 (0.02) 8.19 (5.77) 17.32 
DIBS1StdibsCom(0.06)9 per month 2.42  0.1  8.04 (5.14) 17.90 
BQBoqii Holding Limited(0.08)1 per month 0.00 (0.17) 9.38 (9.09) 28.41 
FLFoot Locker(0.23)9 per month 0.00 (0.04) 6.07 (4.77) 36.40 
HDHome Depot 4.99 8 per month 0.82  0.03  2.02 (1.66) 5.22 
JDJD Inc Adr 0.50 11 per month 3.00 (0.03) 5.33 (4.87) 20.06 
LELands End 0.10 13 per month 2.96 (0.01) 5.38 (4.86) 15.67 
LLLL Flooring Holdings(0.05)7 per month 0.00 (0.37) 6.31 (5.73) 16.26 

Advance Auto Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Advance price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Advance using various technical indicators. When you analyze Advance charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Advance Auto Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Advance Auto stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Advance Auto Parts, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Advance Auto based on analysis of Advance Auto hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Advance Auto's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Advance Auto's related companies.
 2016 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Price Earnings Ratio27.0720.4218.389.78
Short Term Coverage Ratios1.6K3.93.513.34

Story Coverage note for Advance Auto

The number of cover stories for Advance Auto depends on current market conditions and Advance Auto's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Advance Auto is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Advance Auto's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Advance Auto Short Properties

Advance Auto's future price predictability will typically decrease when Advance Auto's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Advance Auto Parts often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Advance Auto's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Advance Auto's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding59.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments503.5 M
When determining whether Advance Auto Parts is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Advance Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Advance Auto Parts Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Advance Auto Parts Stock:
Check out Advance Auto Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Advance Auto Parts information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Advance Auto's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Bond Analysis module to evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios..

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When running Advance Auto's price analysis, check to measure Advance Auto's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Advance Auto is operating at the current time. Most of Advance Auto's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Advance Auto's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Advance Auto's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Advance Auto to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Advance Auto's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Advance Auto. If investors know Advance will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Advance Auto listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.40)
Dividend Share
2.25
Earnings Share
0.5
Revenue Per Share
189.925
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0)
The market value of Advance Auto Parts is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Advance that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Advance Auto's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Advance Auto's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Advance Auto's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Advance Auto's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Advance Auto's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Advance Auto is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Advance Auto's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.