American Airlines Price Prediction and Hype Density Breakdown

AAL -- USA Stock  

USD 38.16  0.72  1.92%

We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with American Airlines Group which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. With American Airlines hype-based prediction module you can estimate the value of American Airlines Group from the prospective of American Airlines response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. The module also provides analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on American Airlines over a specific investment horizon. Check also American Airlines Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

American Airlines After-Hype Price Density Analysis

 Next price density 
 
Expected price to next headline

American Airlines Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

August 17, 2018
38.16
Current Value
38.16
After-hype Price
Target Odds
  
43.20
Upside
American Airlines is not too risky asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of American Airlines Group is based on 1 month time horizon.

American Airlines Next Price Analysis

Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.01% 1.68% 0.00%  0.00% 3 Events / Month4 Events / MonthIn about 3 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
38.1638.160.00%
342.86% 

American Airlines Hype Timeline

On 17 of August American Airlines Group is traded for 38.16. This company stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. American Airlines Group is estimated not to react to the next headline with price going to stay at about the same level and average media hype impact volatility of 342.86%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small where as daily expected return is presently at -0.01%. The volatility of relative hype elasticity to American Airlines is about 870.47%%. The volatility of related hype on American Airlines is about 870.47% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 38.16. About 46.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.68. American Airlines Group last dividend was issued on 2018-08-06. This company had 0:1 split on December 9, 2013. Considering 30-days investment horizon, the next estimated press release will be in about 3 days.
Check also American Airlines Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

American Airlines Related Hype Analysis

Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
Hawaiian Holdings 1.15 3 per month 1.67  0.25  3.63 (3.08)  12.71 
American Airlines Group(0.49) 3 per month 0.00 (0.0445)  1.98 (1.81)  8.33 
Alaska Air Group 0.96 4 per month 2.58  0.0395  2.25 (4.11)  12.34 
Delta Air Lines 0.13 5 per month 1.04  0.13  1.17 (1.53)  6.02 
Southwest Airlines Co 0.13 5 per month 1.05  0.18  2.96 (2.82)  11.25 
United Continental Holdings 0.49 5 per month 0.91  0.11  1.04 (1.51)  3.91 
JetBlue Airways Corporation(0.14) 5 per month 0.00 (0.12)  2.47 (3.20)  10.25 
HP 0.16 4 per month 0.62  0.06  1.47 (1.08)  2.51 
Verizon Communications(0.02) 5 per month 0.77  0.11  1.50 (1.16)  3.24 
United Technologies Corporation(0.44) 4 per month 0.62 (0.0039)  1.98 (1.01)  4.83 

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Check also American Airlines Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot price ceiling movement for different equity instruments.