Alcoa Risk Analysis And Volatility

AA -- USA Stock  

Fiscal Quarter End: December 31, 2019  

Macroaxis considers Alcoa somewhat reliable given 3 months investment horizon. Alcoa secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.1054 which signifies that the organization had 0.1054% of return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. Our philosophy in foreseeing volatility of a stock is to use all available market data together with stock specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-one technical indicators for Alcoa Corporation which you can use to evaluate future volatility of the firm. Please makes use of Alcoa Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.083 and Mean Deviation of 2.61 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations.
Interest Expense

90 Days Market Risk

Somewhat reliable

Chance of Distress in 24 months

Below average

90 Days Economic Sensitivity

Hyperactively responds to market trends
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

Alcoa Market Sensitivity

As market goes up, the company is expected to significantly outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Alcoa will likely underperform.
3 Months Beta |Analyze Alcoa Demand Trend
Check current 30 days Alcoa correlation with market (DOW)
β = 2.1085

Alcoa Central Daily Price Deviation

Alcoa Technical Analysis

Transformation
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. Developed by Larry Williams, the Weighted Close is the average of Alcoa high, low and close of a chart with the close values weighted twice. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes only Alcoa closing price as input. View also all equity analysis or get more info about weighted close price price transform indicator.

Alcoa Projected Return Density Against Market

Allowing for the 30-days total investment horizon, the stock has beta coefficient of 2.1085 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average . However, if the benchmark returns are expected to be negative, Alcoa will likely underperform. Moreover, The company has an alpha of 0.053 implying that it can potentially generate 0.053% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Predicted Return Density 
      Returns 
Allowing for the 30-days total investment horizon, the coefficient of variation of Alcoa is 948.74. The daily returns are destributed with a variance of 9.84 and standard deviation of 3.14. The mean deviation of Alcoa Corporation is currently at 2.58. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (DOW) has volatility of 0.73
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.05
β
Beta against DOW=2.11
σ
Overall volatility
=3.14
Ir
Information ratio =0.06

Alcoa Return Volatility

the company accepts 3.1363% volatility on return distribution over the 30 days horizon. the entity inherits 0.7293% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 30 days horizon.
 Performance (%) 
      Timeline 

Alcoa Investment Opportunity

Alcoa Corporation has a volatility of 3.14 and is 4.3 times more volatile than DOW. 28  of all equities and portfolios are less risky than Alcoa. Compared to the overall equity markets, volatility of historical daily returns of Alcoa Corporation is lower than 28 () of all global equities and portfolios over the last 30 days. Use Alcoa Corporation to protect your portfolios against small markets fluctuations. The stock experiences somewhat bearish sentiment, but market may correct it shortly. Check odds of Alcoa to be traded at $20.36 in 30 days. . As market goes up, the company is expected to significantly outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Alcoa will likely underperform.

Alcoa correlation with market

correlation synergy
Very weak diversification
Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Alcoa Corp. and equity matching DJI index in the same portfolio.

Alcoa Current Risk Indicators

Alcoa Suggested Diversification Pairs

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