Alcoa Price Prediction and Hype Density Breakdown

AA -- USA Stock  

USD 36.70  1.90  4.92%

We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Alcoa Corporation which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. With Alcoa hype-based prediction module you can estimate the value of Alcoa Corporation from the prospective of Alcoa response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. The module also provides analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Alcoa over a specific investment horizon. Check also Alcoa Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

Alcoa After-Hype Price Density Analysis

 Next price density 
Expected price to next headline

Alcoa Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

October 20, 2018
Current Value
After-hype Price
Target Odds
Alcoa is not too volatile asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alcoa is based on 1 month time horizon.

Alcoa Next Price Analysis

Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.31% 2.81% 0.00%  0.25% 0 Events / Month6 Events / MonthIn 5 to 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility

Alcoa Hype Timeline

As of October 20, 2018 Alcoa Corporation is listed for 36.70. This company stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.25. Alcoa Corporation is suggested not to react to the next headline with price going to stay at about the same level and average media hype impact volatility of 0.0%. The immediate return on the next news is suggested to be very small where as daily expected return is presently at -0.31%. The volatility of relative hype elasticity to Alcoa is about 349.72%%. The volatility of related hype on Alcoa is about 349.72% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 36.45. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.44. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Alcoa Corporation has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.17. This company last dividend was issued on August 3, 2016. The firm had 2:1 split on 2016-11-01. Allowing for the 30-days total investment horizon, the next suggested press release will be in 5 to 10 days.
Check also Alcoa Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Alcoa Related Hype Analysis

At Risk
Alcoa Corporation 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.75  0.00  0.00  1.41 
Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited(0.05) 1 per month 0.00 (0.08)  6.50 (5.62)  18.05 
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation(2.72) 3 per month 0.00 (0.16)  1.64 (2.57)  14.59 
Century Aluminum Company(0.37) 6 per month 0.00 (0.22)  7.55 (10.26)  19.14 
Constellium N V(0.23) 4 per month 0.00 (0.45)  0.87 (5.19)  7.55 
First Majestic Silver Corp 0.05 3 per month 1.11  0.29  4.41 (2.11)  7.15 
AngloGold Ashanti Limited(0.09) 2 per month 1.12  0.23  3.89 (2.25)  10.30 
The Chemours Company(3.08) 5 per month 0.00 (0.20)  2.43 (3.87)  10.93 
Celanese Corporation(1.35) 6 per month 0.00 (0.34)  2.12 (3.22)  9.09 
CF Industries Holdings(0.20) 7 per month 0.00 (0.0205)  2.75 (3.13)  10.26 

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Check also Alcoa Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Analyst Recommendations module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.