Alcoa Price Prediction and Hype Density Breakdown

AA -- USA Stock  

USD 42.03  0.58  1.40%

We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Alcoa Corporation which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. With Alcoa hype-based prediction module you can estimate the value of Alcoa Corporation from the prospective of Alcoa response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. The module also provides analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Alcoa over a specific investment horizon. Check also Alcoa Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

Alcoa After-Hype Price Density Analysis

 Next price density 
 
Expected price to next headline

Alcoa Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

August 19, 2018
42.03
Current Value
41.08
After-hype Price
Target Odds
  
48.97
Upside
Alcoa is not too volatile asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alcoa is based on 1 month time horizon.

Alcoa Next Price Analysis

Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.23% 2.60% 0.58%  0.04% 5 Events / Month5 Events / MonthIn about 5 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
42.0341.080.49%
102.77% 

Alcoa Hype Timeline

As of August 19, 2018 Alcoa Corporation is listed for 42.03. This company has historical hype elasticity of 0.58 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. Alcoa Corporation is suggested to increase in value after the next headline with price going to jump to 41.08. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 102.77%. The price increase on the next news is estimated to be 0.49% where as daily expected return is presently at 0.23%. The volatility of related hype on Alcoa is about 1520.47% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 42.07. The company generated yearly revenue of 12.81 B. Reported Net Income was 142 M with gross profit of 2.59 B. Allowing for the 30-days total investment horizon, the next suggested press release will be in about 5 days.
Check also Alcoa Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Alcoa Related Hype Analysis

Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
Alcoa Corporation 2.53 5 per month 2.84 (0.0097)  4.12 (2.98)  11.99 
Reliance Steel Aluminum Co(0.50) 3 per month 0.00 (0.25)  1.36 (1.53)  3.23 
Allegheny Technologies Incorporated(0.67) 3 per month 0.00 (0.09)  3.97 (2.49)  14.40 
Carpenter Technology Corporation(0.51) 5 per month 1.55 (0.0206)  3.17 (2.44)  10.78 
Southern Copper Corporation 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
Arconic 0.19 4 per month 1.01  0.11  3.98 (1.92)  13.62 
Constellium N V(0.15) 4 per month 1.59  0.0461  4.02 (2.86)  14.61 
E I du Pont de Nemours and Company 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
McDonalds Corporation 0.69 5 per month 0.66  0.0003  1.56 (0.96)  2.33 
Merck Co 0.13 5 per month 0.00  0.37  2.08 (0.81)  3.11 

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Check also Alcoa Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Please also try World Markets Correlation module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.