Microsoft Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

MSFT Stock  USD 421.43  0.22  0.05%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Microsoft on the next trading day is expected to be 430.39 with a mean absolute deviation of  4.14  and the sum of the absolute errors of 256.70. Microsoft Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Microsoft stock prices and determine the direction of Microsoft's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Microsoft's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Microsoft's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Microsoft's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Microsoft fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Microsoft to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Microsoft Stock please use our How to Invest in Microsoft guide.
  
At this time, Microsoft's Inventory Turnover is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Receivables Turnover is likely to gain to 6.94 in 2024, whereas Payables Turnover is likely to drop 2.62 in 2024. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to gain to about 7.2 B in 2024. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to gain to about 87.4 B in 2024.

Open Interest Against 2024-03-28 Microsoft Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Microsoft's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Microsoft's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Microsoft stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Microsoft's open interest, investors have to compare it to Microsoft's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Microsoft is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Microsoft. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Microsoft cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Microsoft's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Microsoft's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Microsoft polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Microsoft as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Microsoft Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Microsoft on the next trading day is expected to be 430.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.14, mean absolute percentage error of 26.47, and the sum of the absolute errors of 256.70.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Microsoft Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Microsoft's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Microsoft Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest MicrosoftMicrosoft Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Microsoft Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Microsoft's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Microsoft's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 429.18 and 431.61, respectively. We have considered Microsoft's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
421.43
429.18
Downside
430.39
Expected Value
431.61
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Microsoft stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Microsoft stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria123.2243
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation4.1404
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0103
SAESum of the absolute errors256.7021
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Microsoft historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Microsoft

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Microsoft. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Microsoft's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
421.19422.40423.61
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
363.53364.74463.57
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
420.72421.98423.24
Details
57 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
357.03392.34435.50
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Microsoft. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Microsoft's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Microsoft's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Microsoft.

Other Forecasting Options for Microsoft

For every potential investor in Microsoft, whether a beginner or expert, Microsoft's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Microsoft Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Microsoft. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Microsoft's price trends.

Microsoft Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Microsoft stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Microsoft could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Microsoft by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Microsoft Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Microsoft's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Microsoft's current price.

Microsoft Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Microsoft stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Microsoft shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Microsoft stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Microsoft entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Microsoft Risk Indicators

The analysis of Microsoft's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Microsoft's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting microsoft stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Microsoft Investors Sentiment

The influence of Microsoft's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Microsoft. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Microsoft's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Microsoft. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Microsoft can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Microsoft. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Microsoft's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Microsoft's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Microsoft's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Microsoft.

Microsoft Implied Volatility

    
  21.32  
Microsoft's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Microsoft stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Microsoft's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Microsoft stock will not fluctuate a lot when Microsoft's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Microsoft in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Microsoft's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Microsoft options trading.

Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!

The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.

Try AI Portfolio Architect
When determining whether Microsoft is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Microsoft Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Microsoft Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Microsoft Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Microsoft to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Microsoft Stock please use our How to Invest in Microsoft guide.
Note that the Microsoft information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Microsoft's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Economic Indicators module to top statistical indicators that provide insights into how an economy is performing.

Complementary Tools for Microsoft Stock analysis

When running Microsoft's price analysis, check to measure Microsoft's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Microsoft is operating at the current time. Most of Microsoft's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Microsoft's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Microsoft's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Microsoft to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Funds Screener
Find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges
Crypto Correlations
Use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins
Balance Of Power
Check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios
Commodity Directory
Find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges
Top Crypto Exchanges
Search and analyze digital assets across top global cryptocurrency exchanges
Stock Screener
Find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook.
Positions Ratings
Determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Price Exposure Probability
Analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets
Sign In To Macroaxis
Sign in to explore Macroaxis' wealth optimization platform and fintech modules
ETF Categories
List of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments
Bond Analysis
Evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios.
Cryptocurrency Center
Build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency
Is Microsoft's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Microsoft. If investors know Microsoft will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Microsoft listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.332
Dividend Share
2.86
Earnings Share
11.06
Revenue Per Share
30.612
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.176
The market value of Microsoft is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Microsoft that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Microsoft's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Microsoft's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Microsoft's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Microsoft's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Microsoft's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Microsoft is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Microsoft's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.