Babcock Wilcox Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

BW Stock  USD 0.78  0.21  21.21%   
Babcock Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Babcock Wilcox stock prices and determine the direction of Babcock Wilcox Enterprises's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Babcock Wilcox historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Babcock Wilcox naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Babcock Wilcox Enterprises systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Babcock Wilcox fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Babcock Wilcox to cross-verify your projections.
  
At this time, Babcock Wilcox's Inventory Turnover is fairly stable compared to the past year. Payables Turnover is likely to climb to 7.24 in 2024, whereas Receivables Turnover is likely to drop 3.61 in 2024. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to climb to about 93.5 M in 2024, whereas Net Loss is likely to drop (35.6 M) in 2024.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Babcock Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Babcock Wilcox's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Babcock Wilcox's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Babcock Wilcox stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Babcock Wilcox's open interest, investors have to compare it to Babcock Wilcox's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Babcock Wilcox is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Babcock. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Babcock Wilcox cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Babcock Wilcox's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Babcock Wilcox's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Babcock Wilcox is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Babcock Wilcox Enterprises value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Babcock Wilcox Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 19th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Babcock Wilcox Enterprises on the next trading day is expected to be 0.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.11.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Babcock Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Babcock Wilcox's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Babcock Wilcox Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Babcock WilcoxBabcock Wilcox Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Babcock Wilcox Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Babcock Wilcox's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Babcock Wilcox's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 8.17, respectively. We have considered Babcock Wilcox's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
0.78
0.76
Expected Value
8.17
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Babcock Wilcox stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Babcock Wilcox stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.5281
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0837
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0666
SAESum of the absolute errors5.1072
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Babcock Wilcox Enterprises. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Babcock Wilcox. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Babcock Wilcox

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Babcock Wilcox Enter. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Babcock Wilcox's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Babcock Wilcox in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.050.947.93
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.163.1710.16
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
8.879.7510.82
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Babcock Wilcox. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Babcock Wilcox's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Babcock Wilcox's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Babcock Wilcox Enter.

Other Forecasting Options for Babcock Wilcox

For every potential investor in Babcock, whether a beginner or expert, Babcock Wilcox's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Babcock Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Babcock. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Babcock Wilcox's price trends.

Babcock Wilcox Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Babcock Wilcox stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Babcock Wilcox could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Babcock Wilcox by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Barnes GroupCrane CompanyGeneral ElectricHillenbrandIngersoll RandParker-HannifinRichtech Robotics ClassNow IncEnerpac Tool GroupAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroupSentinelOne
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Babcock Wilcox Enter Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Babcock Wilcox's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Babcock Wilcox's current price.

Babcock Wilcox Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Babcock Wilcox stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Babcock Wilcox shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Babcock Wilcox stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Babcock Wilcox Enterprises entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Babcock Wilcox Risk Indicators

The analysis of Babcock Wilcox's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Babcock Wilcox's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Babcock Wilcox stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Babcock Wilcox

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Babcock Wilcox position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Babcock Wilcox will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Babcock Stock

  0.54CR Crane Company Symbol ChangePairCorr
  0.47IR Ingersoll Rand Financial Report 1st of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.47PH Parker-Hannifin Financial Report 2nd of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.43CXT Crane NXT Symbol ChangePairCorr
  0.41GE General Electric Fiscal Quarter End 31st of March 2024 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Babcock Wilcox could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Babcock Wilcox when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Babcock Wilcox - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Babcock Wilcox Enterprises to buy it.
The correlation of Babcock Wilcox is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Babcock Wilcox moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Babcock Wilcox Enter moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Babcock Wilcox can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Babcock Wilcox Enter offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Babcock Wilcox's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Babcock Wilcox Enterprises Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Babcock Wilcox Enterprises Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Babcock Wilcox to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.

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Is Babcock Wilcox's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Babcock Wilcox. If investors know Babcock will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Babcock Wilcox listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.94)
Earnings Share
(0.49)
Revenue Per Share
11.227
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.04)
Return On Assets
(0.01)
The market value of Babcock Wilcox Enter is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Babcock that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Babcock Wilcox's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Babcock Wilcox's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Babcock Wilcox's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Babcock Wilcox's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Babcock Wilcox's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Babcock Wilcox is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Babcock Wilcox's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.