Vanguard Energy Fund Market Value
VGENX Fund | USD 47.36 1.11 2.29% |
Symbol | Vanguard |
Vanguard Energy 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Vanguard Energy's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Vanguard Energy.
01/28/2024 |
| 03/28/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Vanguard Energy on January 28, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Vanguard Energy Fund or generate 0.0% return on investment in Vanguard Energy over 60 days. Vanguard Energy is related to or competes with Vanguard Materials, Vanguard Limited, Vanguard Limited, Vanguard Global, Vanguard Value, Vanguard Emerging, and Vanguard Market. Under normal circumstances, the fund invests at least 80 percent of its assets in the common stocks of companies princip... More
Vanguard Energy Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Vanguard Energy's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Vanguard Energy Fund upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
Downside Deviation | 1.4 | |||
Information Ratio | (0.07) | |||
Maximum Drawdown | 12.36 | |||
Value At Risk | (1.31) | |||
Potential Upside | 1.46 |
Vanguard Energy Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Vanguard Energy's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Vanguard Energy's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Vanguard Energy historical prices to predict the future Vanguard Energy's volatility.Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0227 | |||
Jensen Alpha | (0.03) | |||
Total Risk Alpha | (0.27) | |||
Sortino Ratio | (0.07) | |||
Treynor Ratio | 0.0596 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vanguard Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Vanguard Energy Fund Backtested Returns
We consider Vanguard Energy very steady. Vanguard Energy Fund owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0414, which indicates the fund had a 0.0414% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Vanguard Energy Fund, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please validate Vanguard Energy's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0227, coefficient of variation of 3299.98, and Semi Deviation of 1.24 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0328%. The entity has a beta of 0.51, which indicates possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Vanguard Energy's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Vanguard Energy is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | 0.46 |
Average predictability
Vanguard Energy Fund has average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Vanguard Energy time series from 28th of January 2024 to 27th of February 2024 and 27th of February 2024 to 28th of March 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Vanguard Energy Fund price movement. The serial correlation of 0.46 indicates that about 46.0% of current Vanguard Energy price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient | 0.46 | |
Spearman Rank Test | 0.51 | |
Residual Average | 0.0 | |
Price Variance | 0.97 |
Vanguard Energy Fund lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Vanguard Energy mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Vanguard Energy's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Vanguard Energy returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Vanguard Energy has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
Timeline |
Vanguard Energy regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Vanguard Energy mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Vanguard Energy mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Vanguard Energy mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
Timeline |
Vanguard Energy Lagged Returns
When evaluating Vanguard Energy's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Vanguard Energy mutual fund have on its future price. Vanguard Energy autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Vanguard Energy autocorrelation shows the relationship between Vanguard Energy mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Vanguard Energy Fund.
Regressed Prices |
Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Vanguard Energy in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Vanguard Energy's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Vanguard Energy options trading.
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Check out Vanguard Energy Correlation, Vanguard Energy Volatility and Vanguard Energy Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Vanguard Energy. You can also try the AI Portfolio Architect module to use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities.
Complementary Tools for Vanguard Mutual Fund analysis
When running Vanguard Energy's price analysis, check to measure Vanguard Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Vanguard Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Vanguard Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Vanguard Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Vanguard Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Vanguard Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Vanguard Energy technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.