Ultradow 30 Profund Fund Market Value
| UDPIX Fund | USD 68.74 0.92 1.36% |
| Symbol | Ultradow |
Ultradow 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Ultradow's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Ultradow.
| 04/30/2023 |
| 04/24/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Ultradow on April 30, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Ultradow 30 Profund or generate 0.0% return on investment in Ultradow over 360 days. Ultradow is related to or competes with Short Real, Short Real, Ultrashort Mid, Ultrashort Mid-cap, Technology Ultrasector, Technology Ultrasector, and Large Cap. The fund invests in financial instruments that the fund Advisors believes, in combination, should produce daily returns ... More
Ultradow Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Ultradow's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Ultradow 30 Profund upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.29 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.03) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 5.09 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.21) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.04 |
Ultradow Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Ultradow's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Ultradow's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Ultradow historical prices to predict the future Ultradow's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0306 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.1) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.11) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.03) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0234 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ultradow's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ultradow 30 Profund Backtested Returns
We consider Ultradow very steady. Ultradow 30 Profund owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0226, which indicates the fund had a 0.0226% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Ultradow 30 Profund, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please validate Ultradow's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0306, semi deviation of 1.23, and Coefficient Of Variation of 2399.18 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0273%. The entity has a beta of 1.72, which indicates a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Ultradow will likely underperform.
Auto-correlation | 0.41 |
Average predictability
Ultradow 30 Profund has average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Ultradow time series from 30th of April 2023 to 27th of October 2023 and 27th of October 2023 to 24th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Ultradow 30 Profund price movement. The serial correlation of 0.41 indicates that just about 41.0% of current Ultradow price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.41 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.15 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 31.48 |
Ultradow 30 Profund lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Ultradow mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Ultradow's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Ultradow returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Ultradow has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Ultradow regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Ultradow mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Ultradow mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Ultradow mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Ultradow Lagged Returns
When evaluating Ultradow's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Ultradow mutual fund have on its future price. Ultradow autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Ultradow autocorrelation shows the relationship between Ultradow mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Ultradow 30 Profund.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Ultradow in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Ultradow's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Ultradow options trading.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Check out Ultradow Correlation, Ultradow Volatility and Ultradow Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Ultradow. You can also try the Portfolio Dashboard module to portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments.
Ultradow technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.