Guggenheim Alpha Opportunity Fund Market Value

SAOSX Fund  USD 21.72  0.06  0.28%   
Guggenheim Alpha's market value is the price at which a share of Guggenheim Alpha trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Guggenheim Alpha Opportunity investors about its performance. Guggenheim Alpha is trading at 21.72 as of the 28th of March 2024; that is 0.28 percent up since the beginning of the trading day. The fund's open price was 21.66.
With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Guggenheim Alpha Opportunity and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Guggenheim Alpha over a given investment horizon. Check out Guggenheim Alpha Correlation, Guggenheim Alpha Volatility and Guggenheim Alpha Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Guggenheim Alpha.
Symbol

Please note, there is a significant difference between Guggenheim Alpha's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Guggenheim Alpha is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Guggenheim Alpha's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Guggenheim Alpha 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Guggenheim Alpha's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Guggenheim Alpha.
0.00
04/03/2023
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 11 months and 27 days
03/28/2024
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Guggenheim Alpha on April 3, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Guggenheim Alpha Opportunity or generate 0.0% return on investment in Guggenheim Alpha over 360 days. Guggenheim Alpha is related to or competes with USCF Gold, Guggenheim Directional, Guggenheim Directional, Guggenheim Directional, Guggenheim Investment, Guggenheim Investment, and Guggenheim Rbp. The fund pursues its objective by investing, under normal market conditions, in long and short positions of domestic equ... More

Guggenheim Alpha Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Guggenheim Alpha's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Guggenheim Alpha Opportunity upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

Guggenheim Alpha Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Guggenheim Alpha's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Guggenheim Alpha's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Guggenheim Alpha historical prices to predict the future Guggenheim Alpha's volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Guggenheim Alpha's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
21.2721.7222.17
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
19.3119.7623.89
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
21.1221.5722.02
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
21.6421.7021.76
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Guggenheim Alpha. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Guggenheim Alpha's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Guggenheim Alpha's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Guggenheim Alpha Opp.

Guggenheim Alpha Opp Backtested Returns

We consider Guggenheim Alpha very steady. Guggenheim Alpha Opp holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.4, which attests that the entity had a 0.4% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-six technical indicators for Guggenheim Alpha Opp, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please check out Guggenheim Alpha's Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (1.63), coefficient of variation of 270.28, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.203 to validate if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.18%. The fund retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of -0.0943, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Guggenheim Alpha are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Guggenheim Alpha is likely to outperform the market.

Auto-correlation

    
  0.79  

Good predictability

Guggenheim Alpha Opportunity has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Guggenheim Alpha time series from 3rd of April 2023 to 30th of September 2023 and 30th of September 2023 to 28th of March 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Guggenheim Alpha Opp price movement. The serial correlation of 0.79 indicates that around 79.0% of current Guggenheim Alpha price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient0.79
Spearman Rank Test0.73
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance0.67

Guggenheim Alpha Opp lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is Guggenheim Alpha mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Guggenheim Alpha's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Guggenheim Alpha returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Guggenheim Alpha has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
   Current and Lagged Values   
       Timeline  

Guggenheim Alpha regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Guggenheim Alpha mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Guggenheim Alpha mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Guggenheim Alpha mutual fund over time.
   Current vs Lagged Prices   
       Timeline  

Guggenheim Alpha Lagged Returns

When evaluating Guggenheim Alpha's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Guggenheim Alpha mutual fund have on its future price. Guggenheim Alpha autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Guggenheim Alpha autocorrelation shows the relationship between Guggenheim Alpha mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Guggenheim Alpha Opportunity.
   Regressed Prices   
       Timeline  

Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Guggenheim Alpha in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Guggenheim Alpha's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Guggenheim Alpha options trading.

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Guggenheim Alpha technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Guggenheim Alpha technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Guggenheim Alpha trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...