Us Government Securities Fund Market Value
| RGVGX Fund | USD 11.61 0.03 0.26% |
| Symbol | RGVGX |
Us Government 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Us Government's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Us Government.
| 03/26/2024 |
| 04/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Us Government on March 26, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Us Government Securities or generate 0.0% return on investment in Us Government over 30 days. Us Government is related to or competes with Capital Income, American High, American Funds, Investment, and American Funds. The fund invests at least 80 percent of its assets in securities that are guaranteed or sponsored by the U.S More
Us Government Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Us Government's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Us Government Securities upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.30) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 2.28 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.75) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.5068 |
Us Government Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Us Government's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Us Government's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Us Government historical prices to predict the future Us Government's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.05) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.06) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.1) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.15) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Us Government's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Us Government Securities Backtested Returns
Us Government Securities retains Efficiency (Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0851, which indicates the fund had a -0.0851% return per unit of price deviation over the last 3 months. Us Government exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Us Government's Standard Deviation of 0.4187, risk adjusted performance of (0.05), and Mean Deviation of 0.3231 to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity owns a Beta (Systematic Risk) of 0.26, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Us Government's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Us Government is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | 0.44 |
Average predictability
Us Government Securities has average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Us Government time series from 26th of March 2024 to 10th of April 2024 and 10th of April 2024 to 25th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Us Government Securities price movement. The serial correlation of 0.44 indicates that just about 44.0% of current Us Government price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.44 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.05 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Us Government Securities lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Us Government mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Us Government's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Us Government returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Us Government has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Us Government regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Us Government mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Us Government mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Us Government mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Us Government Lagged Returns
When evaluating Us Government's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Us Government mutual fund have on its future price. Us Government autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Us Government autocorrelation shows the relationship between Us Government mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Us Government Securities.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Us Government in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Us Government's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Us Government options trading.
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Check out Us Government Correlation, Us Government Volatility and Us Government Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Us Government. Note that the Us Government Securities information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Us Government's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.
Us Government technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.