Oppenheimer Gold Special Fund Market Value
| OGMYX Fund | USD 24.40 0.02 0.08% |
| Symbol | Oppenheimer |
Oppenheimer Gold 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Oppenheimer Gold's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Oppenheimer Gold.
| 03/26/2024 |
| 04/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Oppenheimer Gold on March 26, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Oppenheimer Gold Special or generate 0.0% return on investment in Oppenheimer Gold over 30 days. Oppenheimer Gold is related to or competes with First Eagle, and Gold Portfolio. The fund invests mainly in common stocks of companies that are involved in mining, processing or dealing in gold or othe... More
Oppenheimer Gold Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Oppenheimer Gold's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Oppenheimer Gold Special upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.63 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1063 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 8.29 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.19) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.17 |
Oppenheimer Gold Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Oppenheimer Gold's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Oppenheimer Gold's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Oppenheimer Gold historical prices to predict the future Oppenheimer Gold's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1081 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1447 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0343 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1094 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.1893 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Oppenheimer Gold's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Oppenheimer Gold Special Backtested Returns
Oppenheimer Gold appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Oppenheimer Gold Special maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.15, which implies the entity had a 0.15% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Oppenheimer Gold Special, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please evaluate Oppenheimer Gold's Coefficient Of Variation of 612.57, semi deviation of 1.48, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1081 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. The fund holds a Beta of 1.39, which implies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Oppenheimer Gold will likely underperform.
Auto-correlation | -0.32 |
Poor reverse predictability
Oppenheimer Gold Special has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Oppenheimer Gold time series from 26th of March 2024 to 10th of April 2024 and 10th of April 2024 to 25th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Oppenheimer Gold Special price movement. The serial correlation of -0.32 indicates that nearly 32.0% of current Oppenheimer Gold price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.32 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.35 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.07 |
Oppenheimer Gold Special lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Oppenheimer Gold mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Oppenheimer Gold's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Oppenheimer Gold returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Oppenheimer Gold has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
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Oppenheimer Gold regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Oppenheimer Gold mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Oppenheimer Gold mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Oppenheimer Gold mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
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Oppenheimer Gold Lagged Returns
When evaluating Oppenheimer Gold's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Oppenheimer Gold mutual fund have on its future price. Oppenheimer Gold autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Oppenheimer Gold autocorrelation shows the relationship between Oppenheimer Gold mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Oppenheimer Gold Special.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Oppenheimer Gold technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.