Novavax Stock Market Value

NVAX Stock  USD 4.78  0.07  1.44%   
Novavax's market value is the price at which a share of Novavax trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Novavax investors about its performance. Novavax is trading at 4.78 as of the 29th of March 2024; that is -1.44% down since the beginning of the trading day. The stock's open price was 4.85.
With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Novavax and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Novavax over a given investment horizon. Check out Novavax Correlation, Novavax Volatility and Novavax Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Novavax.
For more information on how to buy Novavax Stock please use our How to Invest in Novavax guide.
Symbol

Novavax Price To Book Ratio

Is Novavax's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Novavax. If investors know Novavax will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Novavax listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(5.41)
Revenue Per Share
9.762
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.18)
Return On Assets
(0.17)
Return On Equity
(8.98)
The market value of Novavax is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Novavax that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Novavax's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Novavax's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Novavax's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Novavax's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Novavax's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Novavax is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Novavax's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Novavax 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Novavax's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Novavax.
0.00
04/04/2023
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 11 months and 26 days
03/29/2024
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Novavax on April 4, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Novavax or generate 0.0% return on investment in Novavax over 360 days. Novavax is related to or competes with Mustang Bio, and YS Biopharma. Novavax, Inc., a biotechnology company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of vaccines to prev... More

Novavax Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Novavax's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Novavax upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

Novavax Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Novavax's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Novavax's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Novavax historical prices to predict the future Novavax's volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Novavax's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.244.7810.92
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.204.0610.20
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
0.094.6910.83
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
18.7520.6022.87
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Novavax. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Novavax's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Novavax's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Novavax.

Novavax Backtested Returns

We consider Novavax very risky. Novavax has Sharpe Ratio of 0.0177, which conveys that the firm had a 0.0177% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Novavax, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please verify Novavax's Downside Deviation of 5.72, risk adjusted performance of 0.0179, and Mean Deviation of 3.96 to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.11%. Novavax has a performance score of 1 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 4.18, which conveys a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Novavax will likely underperform. Novavax right now secures a risk of 6.16%. Please verify Novavax sortino ratio, semi variance, as well as the relationship between the Semi Variance and rate of daily change , to decide if Novavax will be following its current price movements.

Auto-correlation

    
  0.25  

Poor predictability

Novavax has poor predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Novavax time series from 4th of April 2023 to 1st of October 2023 and 1st of October 2023 to 29th of March 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Novavax price movement. The serial correlation of 0.25 indicates that over 25.0% of current Novavax price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient0.25
Spearman Rank Test0.02
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance1.04

Novavax lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is Novavax stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Novavax's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Novavax returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Novavax has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
   Current and Lagged Values   
       Timeline  

Novavax regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Novavax stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Novavax stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Novavax stock over time.
   Current vs Lagged Prices   
       Timeline  

Novavax Lagged Returns

When evaluating Novavax's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Novavax stock have on its future price. Novavax autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Novavax autocorrelation shows the relationship between Novavax stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Novavax.
   Regressed Prices   
       Timeline  

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When determining whether Novavax offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Novavax's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Novavax Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Novavax Stock:
Check out Novavax Correlation, Novavax Volatility and Novavax Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Novavax.
For more information on how to buy Novavax Stock please use our How to Invest in Novavax guide.
Note that the Novavax information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Novavax's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world.

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When running Novavax's price analysis, check to measure Novavax's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Novavax is operating at the current time. Most of Novavax's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Novavax's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Novavax's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Novavax to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Novavax technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Novavax technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Novavax trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...