North Star Micro Fund Market Value
| NSMVX Fund | USD 38.69 0.64 1.68% |
| Symbol | North |
North Star 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to North Star's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of North Star.
| 03/26/2024 |
| 04/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in North Star on March 26, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding North Star Micro or generate 0.0% return on investment in North Star over 30 days. North Star is related to or competes with T Rowe, Morningstar Unconstrained, and SPACE. The fund seeks to achieve its investment objective of capital appreciation by investing at least 80 percent of its net a... More
North Star Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure North Star's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess North Star Micro upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.12 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0039 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 4.83 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.74) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.95 |
North Star Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for North Star's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as North Star's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use North Star historical prices to predict the future North Star's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0616 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.06) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0037 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0694 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of North Star's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
North Star Micro Backtested Returns
We consider North Star very steady. North Star Micro has Sharpe Ratio of 0.0685, which conveys that the entity had a 0.0685% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for North Star, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please verify North Star's Downside Deviation of 1.12, risk adjusted performance of 0.0616, and Mean Deviation of 0.8619 to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0739%. The fund secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 1.29, which conveys a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, North Star will likely underperform.
Auto-correlation | -0.14 |
Insignificant reverse predictability
North Star Micro has insignificant reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between North Star time series from 26th of March 2024 to 10th of April 2024 and 10th of April 2024 to 25th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of North Star Micro price movement. The serial correlation of -0.14 indicates that less than 14.0% of current North Star price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.14 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.14 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.26 |
North Star Micro lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is North Star mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting North Star's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of North Star returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that North Star has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
North Star regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If North Star mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if North Star mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in North Star mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
North Star Lagged Returns
When evaluating North Star's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of North Star mutual fund have on its future price. North Star autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, North Star autocorrelation shows the relationship between North Star mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in North Star Micro.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards North Star in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, North Star's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from North Star options trading.
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North Star technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.