Murphy Oil Stock Market Value
MUR Stock | USD 45.70 0.59 1.31% |
Symbol | Murphy |
Murphy Oil Price To Book Ratio
Is Murphy Oil's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Murphy Oil. If investors know Murphy will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Murphy Oil listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.41) | Dividend Share 1.1 | Earnings Share 4.23 | Revenue Per Share 22.217 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.15) |
The market value of Murphy Oil is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Murphy that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Murphy Oil's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Murphy Oil's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Murphy Oil's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Murphy Oil's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Murphy Oil's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Murphy Oil is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Murphy Oil's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Murphy Oil 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Murphy Oil's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Murphy Oil.
02/27/2024 |
| 03/28/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Murphy Oil on February 27, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Murphy Oil or generate 0.0% return on investment in Murphy Oil over 30 days. Murphy Oil is related to or competes with Arrow Electronics, SNDL, Cardinal Health, Diageo PLC, Treasury Wine, Arhaus, and LB Foster. Murphy Oil Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an oil and natural gas exploration and production co... More
Murphy Oil Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Murphy Oil's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Murphy Oil upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
Downside Deviation | 1.62 | |||
Information Ratio | (0.05) | |||
Maximum Drawdown | 8.24 | |||
Value At Risk | (2.51) | |||
Potential Upside | 2.66 |
Murphy Oil Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Murphy Oil's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Murphy Oil's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Murphy Oil historical prices to predict the future Murphy Oil's volatility.Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0277 | |||
Jensen Alpha | (0.09) | |||
Total Risk Alpha | (0.31) | |||
Sortino Ratio | (0.05) | |||
Treynor Ratio | 0.0433 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Murphy Oil's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Murphy Oil Backtested Returns
We consider Murphy Oil very steady. Murphy Oil has Sharpe Ratio of 0.0651, which conveys that the firm had a 0.0651% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Murphy Oil, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please verify Murphy Oil's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0277, mean deviation of 1.22, and Downside Deviation of 1.62 to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.1%. Murphy Oil has a performance score of 5 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 1.17, which conveys a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Murphy Oil will likely underperform. Murphy Oil right now secures a risk of 1.6%. Please verify Murphy Oil potential upside, as well as the relationship between the accumulation distribution and period momentum indicator , to decide if Murphy Oil will be following its current price movements.
Auto-correlation | 0.56 |
Modest predictability
Murphy Oil has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Murphy Oil time series from 27th of February 2024 to 13th of March 2024 and 13th of March 2024 to 28th of March 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Murphy Oil price movement. The serial correlation of 0.56 indicates that roughly 56.0% of current Murphy Oil price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient | 0.56 | |
Spearman Rank Test | 0.59 | |
Residual Average | 0.0 | |
Price Variance | 0.61 |
Murphy Oil lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Murphy Oil stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Murphy Oil's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Murphy Oil returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Murphy Oil has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
Timeline |
Murphy Oil regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Murphy Oil stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Murphy Oil stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Murphy Oil stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
Timeline |
Murphy Oil Lagged Returns
When evaluating Murphy Oil's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Murphy Oil stock have on its future price. Murphy Oil autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Murphy Oil autocorrelation shows the relationship between Murphy Oil stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Murphy Oil.
Regressed Prices |
Timeline |
Murphy Oil Investors Sentiment
The influence of Murphy Oil's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Murphy. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Murphy Oil's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Murphy. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Murphy can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Murphy Oil. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Murphy Oil's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Murphy Oil's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Murphy Oil's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Murphy Oil.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Murphy Oil in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Murphy Oil's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Murphy Oil options trading.
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Complementary Tools for Murphy Stock analysis
When running Murphy Oil's price analysis, check to measure Murphy Oil's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Murphy Oil is operating at the current time. Most of Murphy Oil's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Murphy Oil's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Murphy Oil's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Murphy Oil to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Murphy Oil technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.