Melia Hotels (Spain) Market Value

MEL Stock  EUR 7.40  0.01  0.13%   
Melia Hotels' market value is the price at which a share of Melia Hotels trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Melia Hotels investors about its performance. Melia Hotels is trading at 7.40 as of the 28th of March 2024, a -0.13% down since the beginning of the trading day. The stock's open price was 7.41.
With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Melia Hotels and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Melia Hotels over a given investment horizon. Check out Melia Hotels Correlation, Melia Hotels Volatility and Melia Hotels Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Melia Hotels.
Symbol

Please note, there is a significant difference between Melia Hotels' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Melia Hotels is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Melia Hotels' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Melia Hotels 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Melia Hotels' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Melia Hotels.
0.00
01/28/2024
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 2 months and 1 day
03/28/2024
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Melia Hotels on January 28, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Melia Hotels or generate 0.0% return on investment in Melia Hotels over 60 days. Melia Hotels is related to or competes with Banco Santander, Banco Bilbao, Caixabank, Iberdrola, Bankinter, Airbus Group, and Unicaja Banco. Meli Hotels International, S.A. owns, manages, operates, leases, and franchises hotels worldwide More

Melia Hotels Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Melia Hotels' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Melia Hotels upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

Melia Hotels Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Melia Hotels' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Melia Hotels' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Melia Hotels historical prices to predict the future Melia Hotels' volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Melia Hotels' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
5.577.409.23
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
6.087.919.74
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
5.747.579.40
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
7.337.397.44
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Melia Hotels. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Melia Hotels' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Melia Hotels' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Melia Hotels.

Melia Hotels Backtested Returns

Melia Hotels appears to be not too volatile, given 3 months investment horizon. Melia Hotels has Sharpe Ratio of 0.2, which conveys that the firm had a 0.2% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Melia Hotels, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please exercise Melia Hotels' Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0993, downside deviation of 1.39, and Mean Deviation of 1.13 to check out if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Melia Hotels holds a performance score of 15. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.37, which conveys possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Melia Hotels' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Melia Hotels is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Melia Hotels' maximum drawdown, semi variance, and the relationship between the sortino ratio and potential upside , to make a quick decision on whether Melia Hotels' current price movements will revert.

Auto-correlation

    
  0.79  

Good predictability

Melia Hotels has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Melia Hotels time series from 28th of January 2024 to 27th of February 2024 and 27th of February 2024 to 28th of March 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Melia Hotels price movement. The serial correlation of 0.79 indicates that around 79.0% of current Melia Hotels price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient0.79
Spearman Rank Test0.49
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance0.07

Melia Hotels lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is Melia Hotels stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Melia Hotels' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Melia Hotels returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Melia Hotels has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
   Current and Lagged Values   
       Timeline  

Melia Hotels regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Melia Hotels stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Melia Hotels stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Melia Hotels stock over time.
   Current vs Lagged Prices   
       Timeline  

Melia Hotels Lagged Returns

When evaluating Melia Hotels' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Melia Hotels stock have on its future price. Melia Hotels autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Melia Hotels autocorrelation shows the relationship between Melia Hotels stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Melia Hotels.
   Regressed Prices   
       Timeline  

Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Melia Hotels in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Melia Hotels' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Melia Hotels options trading.

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Check out Melia Hotels Correlation, Melia Hotels Volatility and Melia Hotels Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Melia Hotels.
You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.

Complementary Tools for Melia Stock analysis

When running Melia Hotels' price analysis, check to measure Melia Hotels' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Melia Hotels is operating at the current time. Most of Melia Hotels' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Melia Hotels' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Melia Hotels' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Melia Hotels to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Melia Hotels technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Melia Hotels technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Melia Hotels trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...