Rational Dividend Capture Fund Market Value
| HDCTX Fund | USD 8.45 0.01 0.12% |
| Symbol | Rational |
Rational Dividend 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Rational Dividend's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Rational Dividend.
| 10/22/2023 |
| 04/19/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Rational Dividend on October 22, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Rational Dividend Capture or generate 0.0% return on investment in Rational Dividend over 180 days. Rational Dividend is related to or competes with Rational Dynamic, Rational Dynamic, Rational Dynamic, Rational Special, Rational Special, Rational Special, and Rational Real. The fund will invest at least 80 percent of its net assets, plus the amount of borrowings for investment purposes, in eq... More
Rational Dividend Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Rational Dividend's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Rational Dividend Capture upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.5493 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.02) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 2.84 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.81) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.8621 |
Rational Dividend Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Rational Dividend's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Rational Dividend's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Rational Dividend historical prices to predict the future Rational Dividend's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0586 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0053 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.01) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.02) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0662 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Rational Dividend's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Rational Dividend Capture Backtested Returns
We consider Rational Dividend very steady. Rational Dividend Capture maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.0585, which implies the entity had a 0.0585% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Rational Dividend Capture, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please check Rational Dividend's Semi Deviation of 0.401, risk adjusted performance of 0.0586, and Coefficient Of Variation of 1047.36 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0339%. The fund holds a Beta of 0.7, which implies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Rational Dividend's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Rational Dividend is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | 0.73 |
Good predictability
Rational Dividend Capture has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Rational Dividend time series from 22nd of October 2023 to 20th of January 2024 and 20th of January 2024 to 19th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Rational Dividend Capture price movement. The serial correlation of 0.73 indicates that around 73.0% of current Rational Dividend price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.73 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.56 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.01 |
Rational Dividend Capture lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Rational Dividend mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Rational Dividend's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Rational Dividend returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Rational Dividend has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Rational Dividend regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Rational Dividend mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Rational Dividend mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Rational Dividend mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Rational Dividend Lagged Returns
When evaluating Rational Dividend's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Rational Dividend mutual fund have on its future price. Rational Dividend autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Rational Dividend autocorrelation shows the relationship between Rational Dividend mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Rational Dividend Capture.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Rational Dividend in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Rational Dividend's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Rational Dividend options trading.
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Rational Dividend technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.